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February 14, 2006

What Was Sharon Thinking? Part I


"War is a matter of vital importance to the State; the province of life or death; the road to survival or
ruin. It is mandatory that it be thoroughly studied.”

- Sun Tzu, The Art of War


In the aftermath of the Gaza withdrawal, the Hamas victory--which clarifies the position of the Palestinian people towards Israel, and clarity is a fine thing, and with Ariel Sharon in a medically induced coma, I have been giving a great deal of thought to his painful decisions to withdraw from Gaza, from portions of Judea and Samaria, and to build a security fence between Israel and the Palestinian Territories.

I have done a great deal of research and one of the things that immediately jumps out at me is the absence of coherent thought dealing with perhaps the most substantial of issues in this whole decision making process: Strategic Thinking and The Israeli Defense Forces.

Most think pieces examine political and geopolitical processes. American pressure, European pressure, internal political Israeli pressure, economic pressure, moral pressure--but hard strategic thought is hard to find.

One of the reasons I assume is, because the IDF does not easily hand out information for global consumption. In fact, the IDF makes a point of handing out a great deal of disinformation. For this, we and the citizens of Israel can be most grateful.

I am, and this is very hard for me because I am an Orthodox Jew, reluctantly leaving out any and all religious, ideological reasons for living in Gaza, Judea, Samaria, in fact, anywhere in the world. Why should Jews be restricted from any plot of earth?

It is a simple question that no one has ever answered except the Mad Mullahs who at least counter with the honest call for Jewish genocide.

Ah, clarity, love it.

I am also leaving Torah--oh my family is going to kill me--out because I do not believe that it came into Ariel's Sharon's mind at all. I believe that his thinking was purely military, purely strategic.

The other reason there is so little military analysis is because, well, let's be honest, most journalists are woefully ignorant of military matters. They wouldn't know a Brigade from a Division. They are northern bred elite liberals with no tradition of military service. In fact, I think I'm pretty safe in saying that most journalists sneer at soldiers. Which is pretty funny considering most journalists couldn't get into West Point if they begged. Yup, it's academically that challenging.

Why am I am trying to understand Ariel Sharon's decisions? Because he is one of the greatest military leaders who ever fought. His battles are studied in military colleges every day. He matters. His thought matters. And he is the one who originally championed the settler movement. And because he would not have made the decisions he made without solid strategic and tactical reasons to back it all up. Say what you will about Ariel Sharon, but his whole life has been devoted to the land and people of Israel.

I am not advocating nor condemning. Simply laying out a line of thought which I believe led General Sharon to make the decisions he made.

You can send all the hate mail you want, I'm just analysing.

Settlements as Military Assets

Do the settlements make any contributions to Israel's defense?

This question goes back to the founding of the State. During The 1948 War of Independence six Kibbutzim played a role in holding up the Arab invaders: Mishmar HaEmek, on the southern edge of the Plain of Esraelon, where the "Arab Salvation Army" was beaten; Degania, on the shores of Lake Galilee, where the Syrians were repulsed; Gesher, and Tirat Zvi, on the Jordan River, south of Degania, where the Iraqi army was halted; Negba, south of Tel Aviv, where the last Egyptian offensive was halted; and Ramat Rachel, on the outskirts of Jerusalem, where another Egyptian column was halted.

To this day, visit Kibbutz Degania, and the Syrian tank that spearheaded the attack still sits, dead in its tracks, where it was met and killed by the brave Kibbutzniks.

Unfortunately, the situation has changed. Kibbutzim and settlements have changed from front-line battle stations into soft, middle-class suburbs that must be vigorously defended by IDF troops. The exact number of troops is impossible to discover, but the ratio of soldiers to settlers is apparently very high.

In fact, some settlements, are so small, so isolated, so awkwardly situated on remote mountain tops that defending them is a military nightmare. To defend such an outpost, by any reckoning takes one soldier per settler. Militarily, this makes very little sense. Some might call it disastrous. The outposts are sitting targets for terrorists who have no moral qualms about slaughtering women and children and Yeshiva students.

As for Kibbutzim, the very first thing Moshe Dayan did October 6, 1973, before the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War, when he learned of the coming Syrian offensive, was to evacuate the civilian population of the Golan Heights. The Kibbutzim were, militarily useless.

And so, one of the hard lessons learned after the Yom Kippur War was: the few settlements that existed in the Sinai were dismantled. The IDF high command realized that not only were they not defensive assets, but they actually got in the way of the people who had to do the real fighting.

Tomorrow: Defensible Borders

Oh, and check out this link in Kesher.

Posted by Robert J. Avrech at February 14, 2006 11:47 AM

Comments

Seraphic Secret is private property, that's right, it's an extension of our home, and as such, Karen and I have instituted two Seraphic Rules and we ask commentors to act respectfully.

1. No profanity.

2. No Israel bashing. We debate, we discuss, we are respectful. You know what Israel bashing is. The world is full of it. Seraphic Secret is one of the few places in the world that will not tolerate this form of anti-Semitism.

That's it. Break either of these rules and you will be banned.

No jokes this time. I really agree with not only the conclusion of this post, but also its methodology. Since most liberal critics or supporters of Sharon in the West have no military experience, they served as poor advocates for the withdrawal.

Herein lies the connundrum for the Left worldwide. Not since JFK has the American Left really had a credible voice on military issues. He may not have been a very good president, but he was the real deal when it came to our defense. Anyone who says otherwise is most likely not a military expert.

Anyway, back to Sharon. I think he did the right thing for the IDF. The soldiers can't always be given every advantage, but why in the world would you deliberately put them at a disadvantage?

Posted by: Jake at February 14, 2006 01:52 PM

Jake:

Thanks so much.

Notice, I say nothing about the "poor suffering Paletinians living under brutal Israeli occupation."

Why? Because this is crap. And Sharon could care less about the Arabs.

Does anyone remember when Judea and Samaria were under occupation by Jordan's Hashemite Kingdom? When the Palis didn't pay their taxes King Abdullah used to regularly open up with heavy artillery on the Palestinian villages.

In Gaza, under Egyptian occupation, the Palis had a night time curfew for 19 years!

So don't talk about brutal. You don't know brutal until you've lived under an Arab regime.

No, I believe Sharon made the decisions he made because he saw the military price being paid was just too high.

Remember Sun Tzu's dictum: Even the finest sword plunged into salt water will eventually rust.

Posted by: Robert Avrech at February 14, 2006 01:59 PM

Robert,

Kudos on your fine analysis.

I agree on your point to leave Torah out. I'm sure it was a painful decision, but it makes sense in this context.

Sometimes a situation calls for dispassionate thinking....and this issue has become so highly charged that some can't see straight.

My concern is the polititians. Anyone who follows the day to day goings on in Israel can not have confidence in the current leadership.

The coming elections will be vital to Israel's future. Because the only ones that can mess up the IDF are politicians with little backbone....like Olmert....Peretz(the Commie).....or Netanyahu.

Posted by: Lance at February 14, 2006 02:17 PM

Lance:

Thanks so much. Writing this piece is the hardest thing I have ever done on this blog. Dispassionate thinking, real analysis is h-a-r-d. Leaving out Torah is murder.

I happen to love the IDF and I believe that the IDF was the love of Sharon's life. I believe he truly feared for its fighting soul.

For that would be a calamity for the State of Israel.

Posted by: Robert Avrech at February 14, 2006 02:26 PM

This makes sense to me. There comes a point in time at which you need to make hard decisions about how much you are willing to give up to retain certain things.

We can speak all we want about our claims to the land, that is not enough to prevent those who would slaughter us from trying to.

Sadly we know from experience not to expect mercy on the weak or infirm. They are murdered as easily as anyone else.

So you come to a place where you have to say what are the benefits. Withdrawal/disengagement, these are terms that carry emotional weight but you have to set that aside and ask if the cost outweighs the benefits.

I don't think that this is a decision that Sharon made haphazardly. I am confident that there was a plan that goes with this and that as you alluded to he felt that this made Israel stronger.

Posted by: Jack at February 14, 2006 02:32 PM

Jack:

Thanks so much for your comment. No, I'm sure that Sharon did not make these decisions haphazardly. These decisions were made where ideology meets military reality.

And the awful reality that emerges, as Sharon must have concluded, is simply untenable for such a small country with such a tiny population to draw from for its fighting force.

Posted by: Robert Avrech at February 14, 2006 02:53 PM

Robert, thanks so much for taking the time and space to do this analysis. It is a perspective I'm not sure I could ever find elsewhere and it is fascinating to me.

Posted by: Lisa at February 14, 2006 02:59 PM

Lisa:

You're very welcome. I try, I really do.

Posted by: Robert Avrech at February 14, 2006 03:06 PM

Robert, truly fascinating. I am eager to see the following chapters of this series. I love the nation and the state of Israel and was very disappointed with Sharon for these decisions. Perhaps your analysis will allow me to let go of that disappointment and really understand Sharon's decision in light of realities and rediscover the respect I've previously had for him. I certainly never found that type of analysis in the lame stream media. Thanks in advance. Suz

Posted by: Suz at February 14, 2006 04:20 PM

Robert, this is interesting for me, because I will admit my understanding of all of this is limited. I have no doubt that you have researched and written your words carefully. It's a helpful analysis for those of us who just don't have extensive knowledge in this area. Thanks for sharing your views and thoughts on this, especially considering how difficult it was for you to write.

Posted by: Randi(cruisin-mom) at February 14, 2006 05:15 PM

Suz:

Thanks so much for your kind words. I have spent hours looking over old and new maps of Israel. I have studied almost every battle of consequence the IDF has fought, and I have read obscure military journals that have come out of the Pentagon. I do this because the sight of Jews expelling Jews from their homes reduced me to... nothingness.

I have to know why Sharon, a lover of Zion, made this momentous decision.

Posted by: Robert Avrech at February 14, 2006 06:05 PM

Randi:

Well, now that you're a shooter you feel much more comfortable commenting on military and political matters, huh?

All kidding aside. Thanks so much. I know that you are normally allergic to my more political posts, but as you discovered, this is not political in the normal sense.

And yes, this is very hard for me to write, for at every turn I feel like writing a passionate rebuttal. But I will not.

I will stick to my military analyisis. The situation as General Sharon saw it.

Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at February 14, 2006 06:16 PM

Robert,

A few months ago on this blog you breifly cited the story of Yavneh. Whenever your heart aches over the expulsions, think of Yavneh. Think of how Rav Yochanan Ben Zakai probably had to force many of his followers with a strong hand to go through that self-exile. Think of how this sacrifice preserved the essence of the Jewish people then and showed us the way to preserve it for always. There is no shame in falling back to protect that which is our core. Even a non-shomer mitzvot like me knows as much.

Those of you who don't know the story of Yavneh, you can read it here: http://www.lookstein.org/articles/yochanan.htm

Posted by: Jake at February 14, 2006 07:39 PM

Jake:

You have a fine memory. The story of Rabbi Yochanan Ben Zakai haunts me. Though one could argue that he handed over Jerusalem to the evil Vespasian in order to save Torah itself.

But I do understand your point and I have made it to myself quite often.

I greatly appreciate your words and thoughts which are meant as consolation.

Tomorrow, it gets even more difficult for me as I tackle even harder issues.

Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at February 14, 2006 08:55 PM

Basically, the Israelis are too prissy in how they handle their enemies. But it's the same w/ the US in Iraq. Read for example the book "My War" it was originally a blog by a US soldier. cbftw.blogspot.com it is now a book (2005).

He writes that the mortar attacks on his base occur all the time. They have even seen video of the people doing the mortars. He writes how surprised he was at seeing them liesurely going about their business. So why is their no prevention of these attackers? because they operate from civilians areas.

Unless Israel is prepared to perpetuate a "saddam" like regime over the Palis. Israel cannot ultimately win, 100% peace.

Posted by: Jobber at February 15, 2006 05:19 AM

Where are your links to provide a factual basis for the statements in this post? As a settler who lives in a mid-size yishuv, I can tell you first hand that we have a total of three soldiers stationed here. We have approximately 1500 people living in my settlement. The three soldiers stationed here do guard duty at the front gate from 6am to 7pm. During this time (and at night) hired security guards (which we pay for) patrol the perimeter of our yishuv. From 7pm to 6am, the male residents of our settlement do three shifts of guard duty - it works out that every man does approximately one shift a month. In addition there is a voluntary emergency response team made up of residents of the settlement, who practice regularly and will be the first to deal with a terrorist attack, if G-d forbid, there is one.

The soldiers in our area are mostly in charge of patrols on the roads, and are responsible for going into the Arab villages nearby looking for suicide bombers WHO ARE PLANNING TO ATTACK LOCATIONS WITHIN THE GREEN LINE.

The idea that the IDF is expending so much manpower "just" to defend the settlers (as if we don't deserve defending after being sent here by the government) is a left-wing propaganda tool. Please check out your facts, and provide links to them, when writing posts of this nature.

Posted by: westbankmama at February 19, 2006 03:53 AM

Dear Westbankmama:

Thanks for writing. My statement about manpower was in regards to the smaller outposts that are awkwardly located. I was not talking about the mid-sized to larger yishuvim.

I am no left-winger.

I am analyising a difficult military situation and trying to understand why Ariel Sharon made the decisions he made.

I have no arguments with you that the government sent you there with all sorts of promises. I don't even have any argument that Jews belong there. I believe that we do.

Your anger at me is misplaced.

I will provide a bibliography and sources at the end of the series.

I believe that you anger at me is misplaced.

Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at February 19, 2006 12:07 PM

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