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March 29, 2006
The Unhappy King
Kadima won, and naturally you might think that Bibi Netanyahu, leader of Israel's Likud Party, is the most unhappy man in the world about the election.
But you would be wrong.
It's King Abdullah of Jordan who's really the unhappy puppy here. Believe me, if he could have voted, he would not have voted for Kadima. That wall they're building, it's the last thing he wants. Israeli troops and communities in Judea and Samaria are just fine by him. Pay no attention to his rhetoric about occupation. In the Arab world, rhetoric is golden--and utterly meaningless.
The Jewish pull back from Judea and Samaria, for him, for his always shaky Kingdom, baaaad news.
Wow, talk about a man with problems, Poor King Abdullah.
Let's rewind a few years and explore the whacky history of what used to be called Transjordan.
After taking over Transjordan after World War I, Great Britain created a local militia called The Mobile Force. It was made up of 150 men. Thus was born the nation of Jordan.
Amir Abdullah ibn Hussein, a descendant of the Prophet and the son of the Hashemite Sheik of Mecca, arrived with British approval in 1921, with the idea of making himself king -- as Mel Brooks said: "It's good to be king" -- and he was not exactly welcomed by the other marauding Arabs tribes.
His main foe was, get this, religious fanatics under Abd al-Aziz Ibn-Saud, eager to spread his Wahhabi interpretation of Islam.
Yup, The house of Saud before they discovered oil. Just a bunch of fanatical, double-dealing, ruthless desert murderers.
Nothing's really changed except now they wear bespoke suits.
The RAF made short work of Ibn Saud and stopped the tide of Saudi expansion.
Let us thank the British colonials.
The Transjordan Army, under the command of "Glubb Pasha," Colonel John Bagot Glubb, was the most professional indigenous military in the middle east. Okay, they were led entirely by British officers, or Jordanian officers trained in the British manner. And over 50% of their army were illiterate Bedouin. But they were disciplined and not the usual rabble.
In 1948, when the current King's grandfather ordered the invasion of the new state of Israel, it is clear that he did not hope to eradicate the state, unlike his Palestinian, Syrian, Egyptian and Iraqi allies. Abdullah actually hoped to annex the West Bank and Jerusalem.
After all, the king had opened secret negotiations with the Israelis. Abdullah rightly never trusted his duplicitous Arab allies and suspected that his new Jewish neighbors would not be defeated so easily. The point of his secret negotiations was to get the Jews to cede him territory without bloodshed.
This did not happen. The fighting was fierce and his Arab Legion took extremely heavy casualties for every inch of land they siezed.
Let us now move forward to 1970-71 for these are the watershed years and the reason that the current King is probably in meltdown mode.
After the Six Day War, the PLO tried to set up a state within a state in Jordan. This situation was intolerable to King Hussein.
Moreover the humiliating defeat of the Arab Legion by the Israelis in 1967 emboldened the Palestinians, and they moved to overthrow King Hussein.
On 17 September 1970, The Jordanian General Staff commenced operations against the PLO. The Jordanians had nothing but contempt for the Palestinians and planned a "48 hour blitzkrieg."
The King was also worried about Syrian intervention for the Syrians were strong supporters of the PLO and sworn enemies of the Hashemites.
From the begining, the operation was a mess. For some inexplicable reason the Jordanian High Command assigned the 4th Mechanized and 60th Armored into Amman's Old City. The Old City is a typical Middle Eastern madinah of narrow streets, abutting houses, dead end alleyways, the worst place imaginable to operate tanks and APC's. To make matters even worse, the Jordanians sent their tanks forward with little or no infantry support.
Which is a big no-no.
To add to Jordan's problems, the operation against the PLO caused frictions in the army to explode. About 5,000 Palestinian soldiers and officers deserted and joined the PLO, bringing with them badly needed heavy weapons.
And then, total oy-vey for the Jordanians, the Syrians invaded, sending in the 5th Infantry Division reinforced with two armored brigades to bring its tank strength to nearly 300 T-55's.
The Jordanians sent the 25th Infantry Brigade of the 2nd Infantry Division and the two armored battalions, 100 improved Centurions, of the 40th Armored Brigade to stop the Syrian advance.
The battle that took place can only be described as something out of a Marx Brothers movie. Both sides blundered into each other. They employed no strategy or sophisticated tactics, but simply hunkered down and fired, or just bludgeoned their way forward in dumb frontal assaults.
By the end of the day, the Jordanians retreated. The King, in a panic that his kingdom was about to fall, called out his air force. This saved the monarchy.
The question rises, why did the Syrians not send in their Air Force to save their ground forces from destruction? The answer is simple. Israel made it quite clear that it would not stand idly by and allow the Hashemite Kingdom to fall. The Israeli Air Force was scrambled and if one Syrian plane took off, the entire Syrian Air Force would have been destroyed.
It took ten months for The Jordanians to destroy the PLO.
In the process they besieged several PLO strongholds, and indiscriminately shelled villages, in the process killing thousands upon thousands of civilians.
Thus was born Black September.
But of course, Jews were held responsible, at least publicly. Never mind that Jordanians killed more Palestinians than the Jews ever dreamed of.
Memories die hard in the middle east.
The current King of Jordan looks at the wall Israel is building, looks at the Jewish retreat from Judea and Samaria, and all he sees in his future is bloody payback.
The Palestinians will never forget what his father did to them.
The Syrians will never forget.
The Saudis will never forget.
You have to feel for the guy.
Hamas will almost certainly try and destabalize the Hashemite kingdom. The Syrians will help with assasinations. The Saudis will finance it. The Iranians are already meddling, anxious to bring about their vision of a world without Israel.
King Abdullah speaks lovely Cambridge English, and his wife wears nice Chanel suits, but make no mistake about it, he runs a vicious police state.
No, the Jordanians are not hampered by Western style ethics. Their security services are efficient and utterly ruthless
The usual suspects are rounded up, tortured, given speedy trials -- and then promptly hung.
Keep your eyes on Jordan. If the Hashemite Kingdom falls, it will not be good.
Posted by Robert J. Avrech at March 29, 2006 09:10 AM
Comments
Seraphic Secret is private property, that's right, it's an extension of our home, and as such, Karen and I have instituted two Seraphic Rules and we ask commentors to act respectfully.
1. No profanity.2. No Israel bashing. We debate, we discuss, we are respectful. You know what Israel bashing is. The world is full of it. Seraphic Secret is one of the few places in the world that will not tolerate this form of anti-Semitism. That's it. Break either of these rules and you will be banned.
Yes, Jordan will be part one of the new Middle East without Israel. Of course, Israel still exists, but with her unilateral, border-hardening policies, the long-simmering Arab hatred that Israel's existence has put on the back-burner for so long, is about to bubble over. Israel is finally withdrawing, probably as it should have many years ago rather than entertaining any thoughts of a negotiated peace with anyone but Egypt and Jordan. Now the Arab states have less of an excuse to focus on Israel rather than their own fights. Let's hope Israel's wall holds and it will only have to watch as the carnage begins.
Posted by: Jake at March 29, 2006 10:55 AM
Jake:
If there is a serious threat to the Hashemite Kingdom Israel will move in. Of that I have no doubt. The question is: what is serious?
Posted by: Robert Avrech at March 29, 2006 11:00 AM
Robert,
You have to say one thing about the Jordanians....they guarantee a speedy trial....
However, all kidding aside, this is very original analysis....and one that many people wouldnt give two seconds to ponder...As you deftly pointed out..the Arab memory is long....and they never forget. They may "blame" the Jews...but they know the "little king", as my Dad(obm) labeled King Hussein, was really responsible for the mass execution.
Posted by: Lance at March 29, 2006 11:15 AM
It is also interesting to see some of the comments emanating from European capitals....
Praising Israel for showing moderation in electing the pro-appeasment(withdrawal)government.
As you can tell, I am very pessimissitic about this current Israeli government. Unfortunately, this government was elected by the lowest voter turn out in history. It doesnt make it any less legit....but I think it shows that the public has grown weary and tired. It is almost like they didnt care....since they were all the same.
Another point is that the pro-socialist anti business labor hacks will have alot to say about economic policy. This will be bad news because I expect they will want to slap on more taxes so they can implement their big brother economic policies.
Needless to say.....it will be interesting to see how this all unfolds.
Posted by: Lance at March 29, 2006 11:24 AM
Lance:
The Little King was so ruthless with the PLO that the survivors crossed the Jordan River and begged the Israelis to protect them from certain slaughter.
And here's the punch line: the Israelis did.
Posted by: Robert Avrech at March 29, 2006 11:33 AM
Robert:
Why am I not surprised.....
Sometimes our misplaced humanity comes back to bite us.
Posted by: Lance at March 29, 2006 11:37 AM
Lance:
Sometimes the commandment "K'doshim Tehiyu" (ye shall be Holy), is hard to swallow. We must often be much more human than our counterparts will ever be to us.
Posted by: Jake at March 29, 2006 11:42 AM
Lance, Jake:
The Israelis also "questioned" these PLO thugs vigorously, getting as much intelligence as they could and then used this intel to kill many more terrorists in future ops.
Posted by: Robert Avrech at March 29, 2006 11:47 AM
A long needed history lesson, Robert. Thanks.
If you'll permit me to offer another anecdote.... There's a Christian-Arab family I know well here in California. Originally from Madaba (a city in Jordan outside of Amman), they started moving here 20-25 years ago. They've taught me a thing or two. For one, Christians used to be over 10% of Jordan's population; today they are maybe 3%. Guess who moved in and made my newly-minted American friends say, "There goes the neighborhood"?
Hint: In October 2001, when every American satellite was beaming down on Afghanistan (and I was unsure whether that was the right response), my friend, big bad Emad, said to me: "You want to know what I think of the Taliban? Bomb the [shoeshine] out of them!"
Jordan's a small country. If anyone would like to get a message to King Abdullah, let me know and I might be able to arrange it.
Posted by: Jeremiah at March 29, 2006 11:50 AM
Jeremiah:
Ah, yes, the Christians of Jordan. Another very sad story that is being played our again in Bethlehem and, in fact, all over the Arab world. And in many parts of Africa. But the liberal press pays no mind for they hate Christianity more than they hate the Jihadists.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at March 29, 2006 11:56 AM
Growing up with a mama who every year watched those mediocre TV movies about Jesus of Nazareth, and seeing her genuine tears.... which were no acting. No, true Christians are never far from my heart. (Can't believe I just tossed that into the blogosphere, but it is that time of the year again.)
Posted by: Jeremiah at March 29, 2006 12:41 PM
Jeremiah:
We admire compassion.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at March 29, 2006 12:58 PM
About ten years ago I worked with a Syrian man who immigrated to the US in the early '70s.
He was a very nice guy who told me many stories about his time traveling throughout the ME, including his memories of being a boy in Jerusalem in the '30s.
There are a few tales that have stuck with me, such as his memories of meetings with Arafat. However the one that really sticks with me is how he recounted King Hussein's punishing the PLO and company.
He told me that he believed that there wouldn't any peace unless Israel was willing to be far more vicious and brutal.
I remember being shocked and upset by this. But I also remember him saying "I am an Arab and unless you learn to think as we do you will not learn how to win."
To this day I am still uncomfortable with that conversation as it has a not so subtle undertone of bloodshed on a large scale.
The question that plagues me, is whether he was wrong or was he right.
Posted by: Jack at March 29, 2006 02:54 PM
Jack:
Well, Hamas is in control of the Palestinian population now, and their stated covenant openly calls for the eradication of Israel, and for the death of all Jews everywhere--what do you think the end game is going to be?
Here's a hint: it's not going to be everyone singing Kumbaya.
Hey, where have you been? We've missed you.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at March 29, 2006 03:01 PM
Hi Robert,
I have no misconceptions about Hamas and their objectives. I suspect that things are going to have to get extremely ugly before they get better.
What bothers me is the thought of how much bloodshed will likely be required to make them go away.
After the experience of the Shoah I am not willing to sit back and hope that someone will look out for us. I'd rather err on the side of caution.
Posted by: Jack at March 29, 2006 03:45 PM
Jack:
Caution is why Chamerlain signed a non agression pact with Hitler.
No offense but sometimes a lot of bloodsed now, avoids worlds of bloodshed later.
Posted by: Robert Avrech at March 29, 2006 03:55 PM
Wow! How many commentators (other than Seraphic Secret readers) have heard of Glubb Pasha?!? His works, especially "Soldier Among the Arabs" and "Arabian Adventures" (particularly the latter), provide an interesting perspective on the early history of Jordan, as well as the long standing practice of the Saudi royal family to use the Wahabbis to prop up their power, and also of the Iraq-Kuwait border problems. He was no friend of Israel (they beat up the army he built pretty badly), but his I-was-there writing is worth the time it takes to read.
Or you can just watch these pages, and enjoy the informed commentary that is so scarce elsewhere. Better than grad school!
Posted by: Boxer 5 at March 29, 2006 05:02 PM
Boxer 5:
Thanks so much for your kind words.
It is true that Glubb was no friend of Israel but he was a fine officer and he offered excellent advice to King Hussein, which the King did not always take.
Unfortunately for Glubb, he was the victim of vicious interArab rivalry, which he despised. It was whispered that he was in charge of Jordan and not the King. Hussein was forced to dismiss Glubb in 1956. Secretly, they remained close friends.
The fighting effectiveness of the Jordanian army plummeted drastically soon after Glubb left Jordan.
In the 1967 Six Day War, the Jordanians were utterly humiliated by the Israelis. Pasha Glubb's heart must have been broken to see the army he worked so hard to build utterly annihilated in just hours. There is no sadness like that of a soldier who sees his command reduced to nothingness. Glubb Pasha died in 1986.
Posted by: Robert Avrech at March 29, 2006 06:36 PM
I think that the question is not if, but when. Hopefully, not in my lifetime. : (
Posted by: Irina at March 29, 2006 06:59 PM
Irina:
The sooner the better. The longer it's delayed the greater the casualties.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at March 29, 2006 07:16 PM
I wonder if it would help rather than hurt at this stage to go out of the way to publicly demean and shame the Arab fascists, rather than accomodate them. Might have taken some of the wind out of the sails of the Nazis in 1938.
Posted by: Solomon2 at March 29, 2006 08:16 PM
How apropos that I received this joke in my email in-box earlier this evening...
At the U.S. War College, a general is a guest lecturer and tells the class of officers that the session will focus on potential problems
and the resulting strategies.
One of the officers in the class begins by asking the first question, "Will we have to fight in a World War Three, sir?"
"Yes, gentlemen. It looks like you will," answers the general.
"And who will be our enemy, General?" another officer asks.
"The likelihood is that it will be the Muslim Nations," the general responds.
The class is attentive, and finally one officer asks, "But, General, we are 300 million people and they are 1.79 billion. How can we possibly
win?"
"Well," replies the general, "Think about it. In modern warfare, it's not the quantity, but the quality that is the key. Look at the
Middle East; 5 million Jews have been fighting against 100 million Arabs and the Jews have been victorious every time."
"But sir," asks the inquisitive officer. "Do we have enough Jews?"
Posted by: Pearl at March 29, 2006 09:35 PM
Solomon:
I'm not sure such gestures are helpful in assymetrical warfare, though anything and everything should be studied and tried. Defeating these barbarians is going to take a great deal of our resources.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at March 29, 2006 09:36 PM
Pearl:
LOL! That is hysterical. Thanks so much!
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at March 29, 2006 09:38 PM
Robert,
You misunderstand me, or perhaps I am not being clear. My definition of erring on the side of caution involves heavy artillery, jets and the smell of seared flesh.
My definition involves providing a glimpse of hell on Earth. My definition involves serious bloodshed and that is what makes me sad because in my mind it is a version of Pandora's box.
Posted by: Jack at March 29, 2006 10:42 PM
Jack, I would go with what that Arab told you, that Israel would have to be vicious. What did Israel gain for all the attempts to make negotiated peace? Worse viciousness.
I remember being told the same thing back in 1969 by a Moroccan Jew I was climbing Mt. Sinai with. He said that force was all the Arabs would respect or pay attention to, not weakness. I think that historically, it was the Sephardi community, i.e. the ones that KNEW the Arab mentality from personal experience, that was the most right-wing in Israel because of it.
It is terrible to contemplate blood being shed. Who would question that? But Israel tried and tried and tried to talk. Arafat...now Hamas...and Katyushas in the south as of yesterday, I believe. Seems like a potential causus belli, if they would start firing those in numbers...
We all pray for real peace, but to rely on those prayers and hopes alone is delusional.
Posted by: Maurice Sonnenwirth at March 29, 2006 11:01 PM
Jack:
My apologies. I totally misunderstood you. Thanks for clarifying.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at March 29, 2006 11:22 PM
I love this blog. Robert, thank you for that astute analysis. The talk of coming bloodshed brings a bit of reminder of....I dont know...armageddon? It's interesting to see the history and the story of Jews and Christians across time. I am so glad I happened upon this place and upon you guys. Suz
PS Pearl thanks for the recipe, I'll try making babke this weekend, if its good, I'll pass some around the University. If not, I'll try again.
Posted by: Suz at March 30, 2006 04:52 AM
Suz:
Let's hope we're not approaching the big A, here, maybe just a minor version of the end of Sodom & Gomorrah.
I'm so glad you mentioned babke. I think Randi is really beginning to feel left out of this thread.
Posted by: Robert Avrech at March 30, 2006 05:51 AM
Maurice,
Blood will be shed. I am not happy about it, but I see no way around it.
Robert,
Not a big deal at all.
Posted by: Jack at March 30, 2006 02:46 PM
Jack:
Thank you.
Posted by: Robert Avrech at March 30, 2006 02:56 PM
Randi? where is Randi??
Posted by: Suz at March 30, 2006 06:59 PM
Suz:
Randi, last I heard, wa stuffing herself with babke and reading "Pride & Prejudice."
Alas, she has no time for Seraphic Secret any longer.
Sigh.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at March 30, 2006 07:12 PM
Thanks for noticing my absense, Suz! I'm rolling in babke and English tea...still plugging away at Pride and Prejudice. I was gone all day at a seminar, but you'll be proud to know, Robert, I brought Jane with me. I read while waiting for the seminar to start, and read while dining all by myself (and I say that happily) at the lunch break.
Posted by: Randi(cruisin-mom) at March 30, 2006 07:30 PM
Randi:
Well, as you can see, we missed you and are darn glad to have you back. Now, where's my coffee and babke!
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at March 30, 2006 07:59 PM
Randi! Good to see you, Robert has been fretting about your absence. I need to get another copy of P&P. I'm reading S&S now and am immersed in the loyalty and restrained passions of Edward Ferrars and the lovely Elinor. Robert, you seem to have stirred latent Jane Austen passions all around.
Posted by: Suz at March 31, 2006 04:51 AM
Suz:
Oh good, what could be more worthwhile! Let us all stuff ourselves with tea and babke and enjoy the lovely Jane.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at March 31, 2006 04:59 AM
Suz...Robert's been fretting because he's having caffeine withdrawal.
Posted by: Randi(cruisin-mom) at March 31, 2006 07:57 AM