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July 30, 2006
Encirclement
So I'm getting e-mails from Seraphic friends and relatives, everybody's really upset that Israel is suspending their air campaign for 48-hours.
I'm thinking, well maybe Olmert is just making nice-nice to Condi. Israel does need jet fuel, does need those excellent laser guides bombs that America manufactures.
And then I start hearing dim reports that certain IDF units are getting heli'd deep into Southern Lebanon. And then, reports of even more units being deployed.
And, oh joy, the cobwebs clear away from my tired brain.
Conclusion: Israel is suspending air strikes because it's moving special combat units into Southern Lebanon and the IDF do not want to kill their own soldiers with air strikes.
The IDF is doing what they do best: maneuver warfare, probably a double-envelopment pincer movement--I'm guessing the Nachal Brigade is involved--sealing off any escape route Hizbullah might have, thus annihilating this terrorist gang.
They will isolate them unit by unit, cut off their cummunications, then kill them to a man. Maybe take a few prisoners for intelligence information.
Just one screenwriter's humble opinion.
Chazak V'ematz.
Posted by Robert J. Avrech at July 30, 2006 10:09 PM
Comments
Seraphic Secret is private property, that's right, it's an extension of our home, and as such, Karen and I have instituted two Seraphic Rules and we ask commentors to act respectfully.
1. No profanity.2. No Israel bashing. We debate, we discuss, we are respectful. You know what Israel bashing is. The world is full of it. Seraphic Secret is one of the few places in the world that will not tolerate this form of anti-Semitism. That's it. Break either of these rules and you will be banned.
Robert - I enjoyed reading your channeling-debbie-reynolds upbeat assessment but I'd like to bring up something related
A rabbi I learn with makes a brilliant, arch point about shabbat, turning around the circa 1935 question "Why do we need shabbat now that we have electricity". Quite to the contrary, he says: "Why did anyone bother observing shabbat until the assault on our psyche of the 20th century?"
I'm beginning to wonder if the same is true about the sad days of the Jewish calendar: in the past, people could only experience one opressor at a time: they had to read about the others, or compress time (as in the reading of the 10 martyrs). Now - in 2006, we are "blessed" - we get to see, in real time, the entire "seventy nations" ganging up on us. What our forefathers had to take on faith, we get to see in real life Before television, who needed fast days?
Posted by: Judd Magilnick at July 30, 2006 10:32 PM
Judd:
Good to hear from you. But do I detect a bit of a less than respect for the late Ms. Reynolds? Gosh, I hope not. Singin in the Rain might be one of the greatest performances in modern cinema.
As to your other points: no argument from me: Sigh. I'm still busy mentally defending defending Debbie.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at July 30, 2006 11:48 PM
Interesting assessment. Makes sense to me.
Posted by: Jack at July 31, 2006 12:40 AM
Boker tov!
I hope you are correct.
The Jerusalem Post reports: "Senior officers in the northern command criticized the decision, claiming it hurt the momentum that ground forces had achieved against Hizbullah in southern Lebanon.
The officers said the decision had taken them by "complete surprise." Some noted that they first heard of the suspension by journalists."
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1153292036616&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Unless this is a just a show by the officers.
Posted by: Ari Kinsberg at July 31, 2006 04:34 AM
Robert -
It would be wonderful if you were right...the picture we seem to be getting here is one of retreat.
We can still hope...
Posted by: Jameel @ The Muqata at July 31, 2006 05:54 AM
Robert -
It would be wonderful if you were right...the picture we seem to be getting here is one of retreat.
We can still hope...
Posted by: Jameel @ The Muqata at July 31, 2006 06:01 AM
to mr. magilnick, if i may: if taking a look at the darker possibilities (punny refererence to your first paragraph intended), inspires and pushes us to fight harder on the home front, through torah study, prayer and activism, than it is a look worth taking. but don't let it get you feeling down. besides, with kids like yours, there is a bright future (please send them my regards).
to mr. averech: in regard to this post - i do hope that, as you predict, israel has at least a few aces and secrets up her sleeves. as much as i want to know what they have planned, i'd rather plenty of those plans stay inaccesible to the general populace.
in general, i want to thank you for the incredible amount of quality information you have made available on your blog in regard to israel and (bad) company. now, if we could only find a way to redirect cnn's homepage here....
Posted by: josh gberg at July 31, 2006 07:37 AM
Robert
I wish I shared your optimism. I fear that we are being led by political midgets and worse. Most military commentators are bewildered by why the IDF is not undertaking a wider ground offensive. Many predicted that a wayward bombing would result in a terrible PR fiasco. This is exactly what happened.
I think the decision to stop bombing is simply another strategic and political mistake. It is an admission of guilt when none should be made. Instead, Olmert should have stated that if Hezbolah continues to operate among civilians, the results are on them, not the IAF.
I only hope that you are right and I am wrong.
Posted by: Azriel at July 31, 2006 07:51 AM
Speaking of the news media at its finest:
On Friday, a Muslim guy walks into a Seattle Jewish center and shoots 6 people, killing one of them. Also on Friday, Mel Gibson gets pulled over for DUI and yells some Anti-Semitic comments. Guess which story got more media coverage?
By the way, Mel Gibson IS Pat Buchanan. But that's a story for another day.
Posted by: Jake at July 31, 2006 09:24 AM
Jack:
It is a personal assessment only. Only time will tell if it is correct.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at July 31, 2006 09:46 AM
I agree, sir. We could all use a big dose of old fashioned Israel heroic military success right about now. It would be a great morale booster. We are hoping and praying that we will prevail during this historically dangerous and sad time. G-d should bless Israel and grant her a powerful, stunning victory against the forces of evil.
Posted by: Mike at July 31, 2006 09:57 AM
Ari:
I'm hearing the same line from every Israeli information officer all over the airwaves. Same talking points. Hmmm. Could it be a case of disinformation? I hope so.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at July 31, 2006 10:01 AM
Jameel:
Try and find out if the Nachal Brigade has been mobilized.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at July 31, 2006 10:05 AM
Azriel:
I'm not a great admirer of the present government or of Dan Chalutz the Chief of Staff, but even from midgets, there are Generals below who can draw up battle plans from classical IDF doctrine that somehow manage to slip by the higher-ups.
We can only hope. We can only pray.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at July 31, 2006 10:31 AM
