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August 31, 2006
The Iranian Nuclear Front
Seraphic Friend John, over at the invaluable Military blog Op For, gives us a brief but tantalizing view into Israeli preparations for the Iranian nuclear front. John is no arm-chair general. He grew up in the Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC, and attended Fishburne Military School in Waynesboro, Virginia. In 1999, John matriculated to the Virginia Military Institute as a member of the Class of 2003. While at VMI, John majored in History and International Studies and served as the managing editor of VMI's student newspaper, THE CADET. He studied counter-terrorism at the University of Tel Aviv in Israel and commissioned out of VMI's Air Force ROTC program. John has been published in The Washington Post and Richmond Times-Dispatch, and was a contributor to the Encylopedia of World War I and World War II.
"The Israelis are being understandably tight lipped on their plans. But their appointment of an Air Force commander indicates that airpower will be a primary actor in any Iranian theater.
"Expect 5-6 primary targets, with roughly 5 major aimpoints per targets. Iran has certain "must-hit facilities," which will be defended by Iran's newly acquired, state of the art Russian surface to air missiles and the Iranian Air Force.
"One small comfort, however. Iran demonstrated during their war with Iraq that they lacked an understanding of their own technology. Their tactics, which are based on old Soviet doctrinal "mass of force" principles, are obsolete. And the one strategy that has paid off for the Iranians -- asymmetric, low intensity conflict -- is useless against an air assault."
To read the rest of the article, please click here.
Posted by Robert J. Avrech at August 31, 2006 08:12 AM
Comments
Seraphic Secret is private property, that's right, it's an extension of our home, and as such, Karen and I have instituted two Seraphic Rules and we ask commentors to act respectfully.
1. No profanity.2. No Israel bashing. We debate, we discuss, we are respectful. You know what Israel bashing is. The world is full of it. Seraphic Secret is one of the few places in the world that will not tolerate this form of anti-Semitism. That's it. Break either of these rules and you will be banned.
Comparisons to the Iran-Iraq war are small comfort indeed. That was long ago and far away. It is altogether possible that they have evolved militarily since those days, just as they have evolved diplomatically (witness their successful playing of the IAEA and UN) and technologically (as demonstrated by their development of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons).
To my mind, the lesson to be drawn from the Iran-Iraq war is a much more sobering one; namely, that this is a country that would gladly sacrifice a huge number of its people to inflict damage on its enemy. I fear an attack on Iran could - God forbid - bring the gravest consequences upon Israel. I don't think these people would hesitate to use chemical weapons against.
Posted by: kishke at August 31, 2006 11:13 AM
Kishke:
I am certain that everyone would prefer a chemical attack to a nuclear attack. Besides, Israel has the capabilty of shooting down the type of missiles Iran would have to use to deliver a proper chemical attack.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.seraphicpress.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at August 31, 2006 12:01 PM
Okay, but what if Israel's attack is unsuccessful, or only partially successful, and Iran remains with nuclear capability?
Posted by: kishke at August 31, 2006 12:26 PM
Kishke:
Sheesh, you are feeling pessimistic.
Anyway, not complicated.
Do-over.
But I have to tell you. A mission like this will not fail. There will be so many operational redundancies that it will do what it's supposed to do. Unless of course Olmert is still PM and his wife Aliza, or daughter Dana convinces him that striking the Iranian nukes is, you know, not nice, and then they'll accuse him of being a war criminal, and he'll worry that maybe he really is a war monger and the Iranians really don't mean it when they talk genocide -- and he calls off the operation and rejoins Peace Now, and feels really good about himself.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at August 31, 2006 01:34 PM
Okay, Pollyanna, you've convinced me!
Posted by: kishke at August 31, 2006 02:21 PM
Pollyanna, that's big time funny. Ask Karen, she spends a good deal of time advising me not to worry so much for it will not affect any outcomes. To hear me referred to as Pollyanna will give her a huge moment of comedy. Thanks so much, we needed that.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at August 31, 2006 04:19 PM
We aims to please.
Posted by: kishke at August 31, 2006 04:38 PM
Slap!
Thanks...
Slap!
Pant.. sigh..
Slap!
I needed that...
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at August 31, 2006 04:40 PM
Ouch. So sorry.
Posted by: kishke at August 31, 2006 06:07 PM