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December 24, 2006
Apple: Phone Home
There is a great deal of buzz about Apple entering the cell phone market. I have been hearing about the Apple cell phone for years.
But it does seem as if Apple is, at last, truly poised to enter the market in two stages in 2007: the first phone will download music, much like an i-Pod, the second phone will have many more features.
Here's my feeling about an Apple phone. Let me emphasize, I'm no expert, just an average consumer, a man who relies on common sense to guide him.
And to be clear, I am not offering financial advice.
I hate my cell phone. It's a design nightmare. Typing in names and phone numbers is a complete pain. I make and receive phone calls, that's it. It has features that I never use, features that I don't know exist. The manual for your cell phone is longer than The Babylonian Talmud. And it might as well be written in Aramaic for all the sense it makes. Some phones are pretty, like the Motorola Razr, but you still need an engineering degree from MIT to figure out its byzantine functions.
Apple is in the unique position to resolve the design problems that plague the cell phone industry.
You see what's happened is this: everyone else has given up, decided that mediocrity is, well, good enough, and the real money can be made in cell phone contracts -- which none of us understand, and which we all hate.
Apple will probably come out with a phone that is really easy to use, a phone that is fun, a fashion badge, and drop-dead gorgeous.
It may well redefine the cell phone industry. Which could translate into Apple's stock climbing even higher.
The Wall Street Journal seems to agree.
Though here's a strongly dissenting opinion.
I wonder what David Pogue has to say about this? He is definitely clued in to the industry.
Let me also say this about the stock market in general. I believe that 2007 will be a good year, I forsee a 10% increase in the market -- including dividends.
Posted by Robert J. Avrech at December 24, 2006 09:59 AM
Comments
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Be careful with this. Blackberry and then Treo redefined cel phones into user friendly computer/cel phone combinations. Apple may be able to make music and cel phone combos attractive, but they will need to beat out an already user friendly design to expand into other computer functions.
Posted by: hmmm at December 24, 2006 11:56 AM
Hmmm:
I agree: be careful.
I don't agree that Blackberry and Treo are that user-friendly. They are only user-friendly in contrast to the junk that's out there. Apple have the engineering savvy to make mince-meat out of them.
Will they do it?
No idea.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at December 24, 2006 01:00 PM
This is what David Pogue has to say re cell phone design in general: http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2006/09/28/28pogue-email/
I agree with him (and you) wholeheartedly!
Posted by: Yoni'sMom at December 24, 2006 01:57 PM
Yoni's Mom
Thanks so much for the link. Great article. I cannot believe what I have to go through on my cell phone just to turn the volume up or down. What a production. Think of the ease of the i-Pod volume control. Now imagine if you had this on a cell phone.
Would you pay for this of use?
You bet you would. And so would millions of others.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at December 24, 2006 04:10 PM
"Think of the ease of the i-Pod volume control."
this is actually one of the features i do not like on the ipod, because the volume is not accessible from every screen. (i.e., if you go do a different screen while listening to music.) why can't they just put a dedicated volume buttom on the side like there used to be.
on a different matter, i went to the movies tonight. first time in quite a while. i did not see that cia movie because of your post. i'm glad because i really enjoyed what we did see (departed).
Posted by: Ari Kinsberg at December 24, 2006 10:32 PM
Ari:
The volume change on the i-Pod was definitely a step backward.
The Good Shepherd is just another Hollywood film that portrays America in the worst light possible. It's made by useful idiots, for even more useful idiots and should make our enemies very happy.
I'm going to go see the new Gong Li movie, "Curse of the Golden Flower." I hear it's magnificent, and she is one of the greatest actresses of all time. And the director, Zhang Yimou, is the real thing, He knows how to stage epic battle scenes, and yet keep his films intimate so you are still wrapped up in the emotional lives of the central characters. Chinese films have replaced Hollywood if you're looking for great sweeping historical epics.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at December 24, 2006 11:44 PM
Another holiday movie suggestion: "The Pursuit of Happyness." The plot is a tad predictable, but it's a good story anyway and the real person who inspired the film was a guest on my CNN show about 10 months ago. I kept expecting the movie to blame Reagan or America for the character's hard financial times, and it really didn't... good film
Posted by: Jake at December 25, 2006 05:49 AM
Jake:
The Pursuit of Happiness is number one at the box office--which goes to show that Americans almost always support a movie whose message is hard work, self-reliance, and the triumph of capitalism.
In contrast to the predictible failure of the loathsome America-hating films of George Clooney which win lots of awards but get no box-office: Syriana, The Good German.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at December 25, 2006 10:01 AM
Why would anyone watch a movie like Syriana? I read the product description on Amazon, I start yawning.
Speaking of George Clooney, I loved his Out of Sight. Excellent movie.
Posted by: kishke at December 25, 2006 03:28 PM
Kishke:
Well, hardly anyone went to see 'Syriana.' It's junk. A hate-America diatribe made by people who know nothing about the Middle East, nothing about the oil industry, and even less about the CIA. As for 'Out of Sight,' yes, fine movie, and of course it's based on a great book by Elmore Leonard, a wonderful novelist who writes action-packed adventure stories with brilliant dialogue and great pacing.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at December 25, 2006 05:25 PM
Sure, I've read almost everything Leonard has written. It's interesting, though, that his books do not always translate well to the screen. The Big Bounce comes to mind. (Although that was not his strongest book either.)
Posted by: kishke at December 25, 2006 06:00 PM
Kishke:
Leonard's books are simple and direct. Hollywood has a tendency to complicate his plots--a big mistake. Hence the adaptations often work against the source material.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at December 25, 2006 08:46 PM
I think part of the problem is that a large part of Leonard's appeal is the atmosphere he evokes through his dialogue, and through his laconic presentation. These are qualities that are difficult to capture on film. Even Out of Sight, which was an excellent movie, did not really bring Leonard's book to life for me.
Posted by: kishke at December 26, 2006 06:31 PM
I note that the English-writing Arab bloggers said Syriana was a huge hit with them, because it portrayed how the Middle East really works. (Or how they think it does, anyway.)
Remember, America is only 5% of the world's population, and the percentage of the world's population willing to be seduced into hating America is probably larger than that, yet it can afford to contribute nearly as much to Hollywood's coffers as an American audience. So there is a good market for movies like Syriana and Fahr 9-11 out there.
Posted by: Solomon2 at January 9, 2007 09:15 PM
Sol2:
Hollywood movies get no distribution in the Muslim world except for black market DVD's so there's no money to be made there. Syriana, and films of that ilk might appeal to a small segement of educated Arabs in Europe, but that's still not a signifigant market. The fact remains that Syriana has not done very well. Rememeber to turn a profit, a Hollywood film has to earn back triple what it cost tomake and market. Fahr 9-11 did well in America. THat was an entirely different story.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at January 9, 2007 11:36 PM
