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January 09, 2007
Apple Phone is Finally Ringing
Seraphic Secret has long had a love affair with Apple products and Apple Stock. No too long ago we discussed the long-awaited, almost mythical Apple phone.
At last, it is here.
And is is beautiful. Just what you'd expect from Apple.
"The iPhone, which will start at $499 when it launches in June, is controlled by touch, plays music, surfs the Internet and runs the Macintosh computer operating system. Jobs said it will "reinvent" wireless communications and "leapfrog" past the current generation of smart phones.
"Every once in a while a revolutionary product comes along that changes everything," he said during his keynote address at the annual Macworld Conference and Expo. "It's very fortunate if you can work on just one of these in your career. ... Apple's been very fortunate in that it's introduced a few of these."
To read the rest of the story, please click here.
Meanwhile, Apple stock continues it's climb towards the stratosphere.
Posted by Robert J. Avrech at January 9, 2007 03:03 PM
Comments
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I'm excited, as I am sure it will combine great functionality with exceptional design, but at the same time, I'm disappointed that the phone isn't "unlocked." I've been very happy with Verizon and am somewhat reluctant to move to a different service provider.
Posted by: Fern R at January 9, 2007 06:52 PM
Hope rings eternal...
Posted by: hmmm at January 9, 2007 10:19 PM
Apple made a technology choice of GSM over CDMA in order that they could sell the same device throughout the world (except Japan and Korea, where there is no GSM). Once they had done that they had a choice of Cingular or T-Mobile, and Cingular was chosen because it is the largest US GSM network. (Also, I suspect there is a large handset subsidy on this thing, and Apple can probably get a larger one if it offers exclusivity).
I like it and I want one. Apple watches had been talking about two products: an iPod cellphone and a "full video" iPod with a larger, widescreen touch screen interface. Nobody figured out that they were the same product. The key issue though is whether Apple have really got this finger operated touch screen interface right. If they have, they will triumph completely. If no, probably not.
The two things I would like that the device does not have are UMTS/HSDPA support (ie faster internet service over cellular networks, and as an added bonus the device will then work in Japan and soon in Korea as well) and more memory. (People who wish to watch movies on the phone are not going to be able to fit that many of them into 8Gb). More memory is just a matter of time as flash prices drop (it wouldn't surprise me at all if Apple increases the memory before the product goes out and does not raise the price - it has done this kind of thing before). As for UMTS/HSPDA, I suspect it is a matter of obtaining a suitably compact chipset to handle the air interface. If Apple wants to do this and be able to sell the same product worldwide it really needs to get quad band GSM and tri band UMTS into the device, and the only company that sells a device that handles all those bands at the moment is HTC, which is both an exclusive Microsoft partner and in any event the device is much bigger than this. The company that is doing best at getting UMTS into small devices is probably Motorola with the V3xx, but that only manages some of the bands and thus comes in different versions for different parts of the world. And anyway, after their past failed joint venture I can't imagine Motorola and Apple are about to work together again.
I suspect though that we shall see Apple sort this out in the second generation of the product in about a year.
I do wonder though who is designing and building the chipset for this thing. One can't imagine that any of the large cell phone manufacturers would be terribly keen on selling Apple their technology. And I am not sure how sophisticated any of the Taiwanese ODM companies are at this sort of thing.
Posted by: Michael Jennings at January 9, 2007 10:36 PM
Fern:
It will be interesting to see how many people switch carriers in order to use the Apple phone. I believe that word of mouth and its fashion cashe will have a great deal of influence over this decision for many consumers.
Michael:
Thanks so much for the detaled look into Apple technology.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at January 9, 2007 11:25 PM
Hmmm:
I'm just hoping the phone is another i-Pod--and I firmly believe it will be--and that Apple stock will continue to climb.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at January 10, 2007 09:20 AM
Wow. Only word to describe it.
Apparently will be a 4 GB and 8GB version like an iPod Nano.
I may have to switch to Cingular, though I think Verizon is better here.
Posted by: wanderer at January 10, 2007 10:27 AM
Wanderer:
Wow, indeed. Keep in mind that Apple R&D never rests. The phone will evolve in a dizzying array of consumer-friendly configurations--with the price falling, though not for a while. Apple maintains and it is their market strategy that their products cost more because they are worth more. And it is true.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at January 10, 2007 11:28 AM
Robert, I hope the same for your sake. May your investments continue to climb - you deserve it! I just don't think the iPhone will compare to the iPod. There is already a lawsuit over name use from Cisco, and they are entering a predefined market, while iPod created a new market. Limiting providers is a very bad idea as well.
Posted by: hmmm at January 10, 2007 05:04 PM
Hmmm:
At any time Apple is involved in several dozen law suits. Yawn. Will the iphone be another ipod? Probably not. But I still think it will be huge, at least 1% of the cell phone market in the first year. They have limited carriers in order to limit viruses--a very Apple idea.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at January 10, 2007 06:38 PM
What I don't like:
1) No qwerty keypad (big downside)
2) It is cingular based
3) Too little memory (ok, my 80gb ipod is overkill, but I need more than 8gb)
4) I'm not optimistic about battery life, which is the most important feature for me when I buy electronics.
5) Is this a full featured smartphone like a Treo? because if not I still need 2 devices, so I will keep my i-Pod and just get the Treo anyway.
A little while ago you wrote that you don't give stock advice because either way we will hate you. Well you are correct. You did not tell us to buy Apple and now we hate you. (Just kidding of course.)
Posted by: Ari Kinsberg at January 10, 2007 08:10 PM
Ari:
Gee, and I was going to buy you the Apple phone as a birthday gift. Oh well, forget that.
I do not give stock advice, but: My prediction is that Apple stock will hit 115-120 this year and -- stay there.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at January 10, 2007 08:53 PM
There is another issue with the initial network exclusivity with Cingular, which is the visual menu system that apparently operates with the voicemail. This apparently required an upgrade at the mobile network end, and Apple probably needed to provide exclusivity to get Cingular to do this. So exclusivity for a time was probably the cost of having a price that was merely high rather than completely prohibitive and also of getting the functionality right. Apple chose to get the product right rather than to make it a mass market product right away. That is very Apple. The question really is whether Cingular can provide the level of reliability and customer service that Apple's customers expect (I'm not sure - they are a phone company after all) and what kind of data tariff they offer for people with the iPhone. In order that people will actually use the iPhone to its potential rather than worry about the cost, it needs something with a flat rate data tariff. I am sure that Apple at least know this, so I am reasonably optimistic.
Of course Robert, now that Ari has turned you down if you would like to buy me an iPhone for my birthday, that would be lovely....
Posted by: Michael Jennings at January 11, 2007 12:02 AM
Michael:
It's the oddest thing, ever since Ari turned own by birthday offer, my g-mail is positively stuffed with birthday reminders. BTW, do you use a Mac or a PC? And are you still in sun-dappled South Korea?
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at January 11, 2007 12:21 AM
I use a PC. I used Macs (and Unix for heavier stuff) until the mid 1990s, and then I switched for business reasons and because classic Mac OS had at that point lost the plot. I now stick to PCs still for business reasons and because I like to build my own PCs and tinker with the hardware, and you can't do that with Macs, generally. If Apple were to release a subcompact laptop, I might buy one of those. (Given how much I travel, I prefer really light laptops). Otherwise I will stick to Windows and Linux now, much as I admire OS/X.
I was only in Korea for a few days before Christmas. I then spent a couple of weeks visiting family and friends in Australia, and I have been back in London for about a week now.
Posted by: Michael Jennings at January 11, 2007 10:32 PM
Michael:
Makes sense having to use a PC for business reasons. But I assume you listen to music on an i-Pod, right?
So, while in S. Korea, did you get any sense at all of how tense it is on the border with the North Koreans?
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at January 12, 2007 10:42 AM
