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May 31, 2007
Lack of Clarity I: 4GW
Most Americans and far too many Israelis do not understand the nature of Fourth Generation Warfare, which includes the strategic use of protracted war, and political propaganda. We have only to study how the Communist North Vietnamese destroyed the political will of the United States to see how this model of warfare works.
The difference between the Communists and the Islamic terrorists are quite striking:
1. The Communists used violence as a tactic in a revolutionary struggle to absorb entire states, and then build their anti-Democratic tyrannies on the ossified bones of Marxist/Lenninist theory.
2. The jihadists use violence as a religious principle to hollow out the states they wish to fracture and plunder. They have no wish to build infastructure. Witness the so-called Palestinians who have had numerous opportunities since 1948 to have their own state. Each time they have rejected this option in favor of war. Gaza is the end result of the jihadist nihilism.
4th Generation Propaganda
Similarities must be noted for jihadists have carefully studied the Communist insurgencies of the 20th century.
Communists and jihadists exploit the natural splits in democracies to erode popular support for war. Their propaganda always frames every conflict in terms of "colonial aggression" thereby easily coopting squishy Western liberals as allies and enablers. Western liberals were content to co-exist and apologize for Communism, and now most liberals are marching along with Islamic radicals; an odd match considering Islamic radicals will turn around and butcher all feminists, homosexuals, Jews, Christians, Secularists, at the first opportunity.
But liberals are no longer liberal; their once fine ideology has been corrupted by a morally vacuous multi-culturalism. Malignant Jew-hatred has settled into a comfortable home in the rarified salons of the European and American left—cleverly disguised as "mere anti-Zionism." There is also a paralyzing fear of being accused of Islamophobia—a phantom prejudice invented by jihadists to keep the guilt-ridden West on the defensive, another tactic of 4th Generation Warfare. Thus, liberals have transmongrified into arch-reactionaries and isolationists, living in a fashionable, but ultimately suicidal state of denial.
Negotiation: 4th Generation Style
Negotiation is another tactic used by 4th Generation players to defeat their enemies. Read what Mao said about this tactic:
Revolutions rarely compromise; compromises are made only to further the strategic design. Negotiation, then, is undertaken for the dual purpose of gaining time to buttress a position (military, political, social, economic) and to wear down, frustrate and harass the opponent. Few, if any essential concessions are to be expected from the revolutionary side, whose aim is only to create conditions that will preserve the unity of the strategic line and guarantee the development of a victorious situation.
Thus, when the Democrats demand that we engage Syria and Iran, they play right into the hands of the enemy. Negotiation buys time, gives the aura of legitimacy to butcher regimes, and allows the world to sit back and imagine that all will be well. In fact, the rogue state are merely setting up their next aggressive moves. For Syria, the final annexation of Lebanon; for Iran, their nuclear bomb: hegemony over the middle-east, and the destruction of Israel.
Losing Battles, Winning Wars
Ho Chi Minh lost every important battle against U.S. forces. For General Giap the Tet Offensive was a disaster, but in defeating the political will of the United States Tet was a spectacular success; that self-important wind-bag Walter Cronkite was worth his weight in gold to the Communists, thus the North was able to win the war.
The jihadists are counting on just this strategy as America and Israel battle world-wide jihad. In Israel, those on the left through willfull ignorance, stubborn denial, all-too familiar Jewish self-loathing, or simple conflict-fatigue neatly separate the so-called Palestinians and their endless grievances from the trans-national jihadist players, Hizbullah/Iran, Syria/Hizbullah & Islamic Jihad, and continue to insist that the war is about "occupied territory" when it is about the very existence of the Jewish State.
The liberation of Palestine, from an Arab viewpoint, is a national duty and it attempts to repel the Zionist and imperialist aggression against the Arab homeland, and aims at the liquidation of the Zionist presence in Palestine.
PLO Charter, Article 15
This from Abbas' Fatah, the group our government and Israel's current leadership considers pragmatic and moderate.
In America we are already being told that we must "learn to live" with a nuclear Iran, as if some magical paralysis has taken hold of our national will and nothing can be done about the spread of nuclear weapons among jihadist state players.
We have also been told that the war in Iraq is "lost," that it is a "quagmire," and that we must now stamp an expiration date on this war. Of course, nothing would make the jihadists happier than a surrender time-table from the Americans.
Time... Time... Time
It is also vital to come to grips with the stark reality of the time-frame that Fourth Generation Warfare imposes. The jihadists correctly think in terms of generations. We in the west, impatient for instant solutions, believe that wars should come to a final conclusion after a few months, certainly after several years, World War I & II serving as models. But these wars were the last of Third Generation Warfare. We cannot fight these wars anymore. The enemy is too clever, and will not allow himself to be destroyed on the field of battle where he knows he cannnot triumph. Thus the jihadists have adopted Fourth Generation Warfare as their two stage strategy: destroying the political will of the west, and then rupturing one Western democracy after another.
Impatience inevitably leads to defeat. This is the heart and soul of Mao's concept of protracted war.
The Europeans are set on seeking "diplomatic solutions." This is nothing less than appeasement. Even as their capital cities sprout huge mosques generously funded by radical Islamic "charities," European intellectual elites agitate against Israel with South African style boycotts, and give a free pass to Iran, and Syria, countries that seek their destruction.
These are the mind-sets of those who have been defeated by 4th Generation Warfare, some willingly, others unknowingly. Nevertheless, it is the road to oblivion for western civilization.
Everyone should understand: Lack of clarity spells doom.
Posted by Robert J. Avrech at May 31, 2007 10:07 AM
Comments
Seraphic Secret is private property, that's right, it's an extension of our home, and as such, Karen and I have instituted two Seraphic Rules and we ask commentors to act respectfully.
1. No profanity.2. No Israel bashing. We debate, we discuss, we are respectful. You know what Israel bashing is. The world is full of it. Seraphic Secret is one of the few places in the world that will not tolerate this form of anti-Semitism. That's it. Break either of these rules and you will be banned.
Excellent analysis. But as usual, I think more ordinary Americans are aware of the threat and it is only the politicians and the media elites who either don't see it, or don't want to discuss this if they do.
I think a great deal of the dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq is not because we are failing there as the critics would say. I think a BIG CHUNK of the American people is angry that we still have not taken it to the enemy directly in Saudi Arabia, Iran, etc. In other words, the people would support much more than a surge in Iraq, as long as we all saw an effort being made to smash the enemy in a big way. I think the American people are more responsibly hawkish than they're given credit for.
Posted by: Jake at May 31, 2007 01:23 PM
Jake:
Thanks for the comment. I wish I could be as opitmistic as you. I see no evidence that the American people truly comprehend just how long this war will take, or how deadly it will become. I pray you are right.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at May 31, 2007 03:14 PM
I think we need a Seraphic field trip to Nebraska. We'll have to go incognito, but it could be fun. It's the only way to find out the truth.
Posted by: Jake at May 31, 2007 05:33 PM
Jake:
Beeen to Nebraska. Research for a film. It was, um, very flat. Could not find a minyan.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at May 31, 2007 06:11 PM
That was a very interesting analysis of the situation.
Posted by: Jack at May 31, 2007 11:08 PM
The article of the Charter that I harp on is twenty, which explicitly denies the historical connection between Jews and Israel. This is one of the tenets of Palestinian nationalism. Jews are Europeans who encroached on the indigenous land of the Palestinians. (Of course how indigenous the Palestinians are is a different matter. Islam is a religion of the Arabian peninsula, so historically, Muslims in Israel are occupiers, aren't they?)
Still there's been this disturbing tendency - especially on the Left - to discount the importance of the Charter. I know I read several times that the Charter was a dead letter and no one believes those things anymore. And of course there are those who pretend that the silly hand waving excercises in April 1996 and October 1998 had any meaning. The denial of the Jewish claim to Israel is a fundamental principle of Palestinian nationalism. That's how Arafat, even after holding two bogus votes to abrogate the Charter, could still tell Clinton that no Temple ever stood on the Haram! When something a deeply held belief a simple vote doesn't automatically erase that belief.
But here we have folks who impute goodwill to a cause that is devoted to destruction and made a pariah out of a movement that seeks to build.
Posted by: soccerdad
at June 1, 2007 06:10 AM
Jack:
Thanks so much.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at June 1, 2007 06:31 AM
Soccer Dad:
The idea that the PLO Charter is a dead issue is an infamous lie. One only has to look at the textbooks used in every classroom in the areas controlled by Fatah and Hamas for evidence. No map of Israel shows Israel—only Palestine.
Every article in the PLO Charter is taught and hammered home to Arab children so before too long they have become educated to become rabid Jew-haters, and enthusiastic terrorists.
As for the votes to abrogate the Charter, well, it's the old double flag game the PLO always played. Make cosmetic concessions to the west, but behind the scenes continue with the same old terrorism. Arafat was the master of this deceitful ploy—another tactic of 4th GW.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at June 1, 2007 06:42 AM
Robert:
I find the concept of 4GW very interesting. However, the notion that there is an organized worldwide effort by Muslim fanatic jihadists to continue this festering war very difficult to comprehend.
I assume that AlQaida/Iran/Hizbulla/Hamas/PFLP/etc. are all involved in this consorted effort to topple western democracy. But what bothers me is the ability for these terrorist regimes to centralize their efforts and coordinate a global scale war of attrition against the west.
I have no doubt that Iran is the most influential player in this scheme, but can we honestly believe that they have the abiity to independantly put forth such a grandiose plan?
With the recent Syrian/Russo alliance I tend to wonder what part the old Soviet gaurd has played in this new world challenge.
Anyway, the writing was on the wall over a decade ago when Israel made the fatal mistake of unleashing Arafat. It was with his example that the modern day Islamo fanatic was truely born.
Posted by: David at June 4, 2007 05:25 AM
David:
You make an excellent point when you express skepticism about all these group neatly aligned against the west with a coordinated battle plan.
In fact, I plan on writing about just this subject in a forthcoming chapter of the "Lack of Clarity" series.
Briefly, this is my response:
There is no centralized command of Islamic jihadist forces that attack the West. What we do have is a dangerous stew of state and non-state players.
Al Queda mounts its own operations, and franchises out other attacks to smaller groups who seek funding and logistical support from Al Queda
There are hundreds if not thousands of decentralized terrorist groups all over the world. In terms of fighting quality, they range from the completely ineffective to truly adaptable and dangerous terrorists.
And while these groups do not coordinate their efforts they are all aware of and use 4GW tactics, which they learn on the internet, in their local mosques, and in training camps in Iran, Syria, Pakistan, Gaza, Sudan, North Korea and a host of other rogue nations.
The importance of the internet cannot be overstated.
Thus, while there is not central command center, Islamic terrorists all share a common desire to:
1. Destroy Israel.
2. Destroy Europe, and America.
3. Outlaw Christianity and Judaism and any other religion that is not Islam.
4. Abolish women's rights.
5. Install Islamic states with Sharia as official law, restore the Caliphite.
With these goals in mind, disparate radical Islamic groups work separately to create stomach churning levels of public fear, and grind down the will of the West so that the national will to fight will be eroded.
Islamic websites constantly refer to America's surrender in Viet Nam; America's withdrawal from Lebanon, American withdrawal form Somalia. Israel's withdrawl from southern Lebanon also boosted Hizbullah status in Lebanon enormously. They claimed an historic victory over the IDF and they were right.
And now Israel, refusing to recogine that her mistake in Gaza emboldened the jihadists is still discussing withdrawal form parts of Judea and Samaria.
All this sends a clear message:
1. Terrorist violence is effective.
2. America does not have the will to fight a long war.
3. It's easy to whip up anti-war fervor in the US.
4. Some Jews agree philosophically with Islamic terrorists that Jews are not allowed to live wherever they want. The judenrein policy that is in effect in the Arab world was supported by the government of Israel.
5. Judea and Samaria will serve as the next front for Israel in the "land for peace" phantom.
In fact, the jihadists benefit from this loose structure. With no head to decapitate, the West finds itself, for the meantime, fighting the tail of the snake, over and over again.
However, there are fatal weaknesses to this terrorist structure, and I will be dealing with them in a future posting.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at June 4, 2007 12:52 PM
Robert:
Thank you for your response. I tend to agree with your theory of 'centralized decentralization' regarding the jihadists modus operandi for destabilzation and global terror.
However, despite my earlier comment I do believe that the enemy has recently become more centralized than we would believe. It would be naive to assume that these terror cells can operate largely through internet sites or local mosques without a guiding entity providing funds and training.
I feel that there is a coordinated effort by Islamic extremists within Iran/Pakistan which in affect are the head of the snake. They in turn train and fund several large terror groups(Hamas,Hizbullah,Fatah,Al-Qaieda) which then use a form of trickle down dessimination of terror throughout the globe.
The internet and local mosques are essentially the medium used by these major terror groups to spread the jihadist doctrine. The local splnter groups(depending on hierarchy) formulate their own terror actions. However, large scale terrorist actions can almost only be coordinated by major groups which have huge finacial resources.
It must be noted that not all of these terror cells use violence to achieve their goals.
The jihadist have become very savvy at using a multiple of techniques to implement their extremist values witin other non-muslim countries. Through political coercion,media,antisemetic propaganda Muslim extremists are propagating their doctrine successfully.
Posted by: David at June 9, 2007 05:46 AM
David:
Thnaks so much for the input. This debate about centralization/decentralization is quite widespread. I believe the ground is constantly shifting, and there are so many state and non state actors at this point thst one really has to stop talking in generalities and pretty much speak to specifics when you get past theory.
That being said, I agree that specific states are funneling huge amonts of cash and resources to jihadists. The obvious players are: Iran, Syria, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia.
I agree completely that the jihadists are savvy at spreading their doctrine. It doesn't help that the MSM in the west enable much of this propaganda.
Democracies are always slow to figure out when and how to fight the enemy. But once they do, and the proper will is summoned, democracies are historically brutal and unrelenting.
The time will come when the West will strike back with such ferocity that Hiroshima will look like a pin-prick.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at June 10, 2007 10:11 AM
Robert:
Thanks for the response.
I hope the west awakens soon.
I thought 9/11 would have been the wake up call.
Apparently the jihadists understand us better than we thought.
After 9/11 when we attacked Afghanistan/Iraq the jihadists did not reciprocrate with enhanced terror.
Rather, they understood that if the war could be protracted long enough with a high casualty rate the society in the US would demand that the war be ended.
Of course if the jihadist had continued to perpetrate terror acts on US soil the American people would now be fully behind the war in Iraq.
I felt that the aborted terror act last year( the attempted downing of multiple jetliners over the Atlantic) would have given Bush added backing to continue the war. I was wrong.
I'm very confused on this issue- I can't seem to understand the American peoples inability to perceive the big picture when it pertains to the Jihadists long term goal of global domination.
Only time will tell
Posted by: David at June 11, 2007 02:00 AM
David:
It is very true that 9-11 did not properly serve as a wake-up call to America. Too many people simply misunderstand what it meant and promised for the future.
It is also very true that the jihadists understand us far better than we understand them.
This is not surprising. We are an open transparent society. Many jihadists have lived in America or in Europe where they learned to hate western values even more—not as some would argue become more westernized.
The Muslim/Islamic world is harder to penetrate. And when we in the west do glimpse the beast at its core many recoil for it is so very frightening for we realize:
People are not the same.
All religions are not the same.
Some cultures are superior to others.
Some societies are dysfunctional and the blame lies squarely on the members of that society—not outsiders.
Some wars are necessary.
Many people need to be killed not understood.
Admitting these truths is almost impossible for many in the west. It brings into question their most cherished liberal values.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at June 11, 2007 09:45 AM
