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June 04, 2007
Lack of Clarity II: Casualties
The first, the supreme, the most far-reaching act of judgement that the statesman and commander have to make is to establish by that test the kind of war on which they are embarking; neither mistaking it for, not trying to turn it into something that is alien to its nature.
Though Carl von Clausewitz wrote these words almost two hundred years ago they are as relevant today as ever. This cautionary dictum is vital to understanding why Israel's government and military stuttered so badly in the Second Lebanon War.
Know Your Enemy
IDF Chief of Staff Dan Chalutz tried to turn a 4th Generation War into a high-tech affair, relying on air-power almost exlusively to defeat Hizbullah, an Iranian proxy army of terrorists well trained in 4GW.
In the first few days of the Second Lebanon War, the IAF destroyed all of Hizbulla's long and medium range rockets and platforms. In fact, Hizbullah were shocked at the pin-point accuracy of the bombing and Israel's superb intelligence.
But Hizbullah quickly regrouped and continued to fire short-range Qassam rockets into Israel at a furious pace, sending enormous number of Israeli civilians into bomb shelters. It was a sobering time for Israel, realizing that their army could not protect them against an army of terrorists. But air power is useless against Qassams for they are small, lightweight and can be transferred from site to site by backpack or car.
Meanwhile, Hizbullah fighters spent years digging Iwo Jima style tunnels and bunkers in the Shia villages of Southern Lebanon; they were well-trained to meet a classic 3rd Generation War IDF offensive. Hizbullah were using Mao's classic guerilla style of warfare.
Here's how Mao lays it out:
1. When the enemy advances, we withdraw.
2. When the enemy rests, we harass.
3. When the enemy tires, we attack.
4. When the enemy withdraws, we pursue.
And so, when Israel finally did send in ground troops (ill-equipped, and undertrained) they were not prepared for the type of battle nor the enemy they would meet.
Let us turn the clock back to Iwo Jima for this is the classic battlefield that should be studied in order to gain a wider understanding of what Israel and the west faces today.
Flashback: Iwo Jima
General Tadamichi Kurabayashi, commander of the Japanese armed forces on Iwo Jima understood that his soldiers could not triumph in a classical battle against the far stronger and better equipped American Marines.
He was sent to Iwo Jima to hold out for as long as possible and to die for his Emperor. Iwo Jima was considered part of mainland Japan and every inch of territory had to be defended against American invasion.
Kuribayashi also understood that the American people did not accept battlefield casualties with the stoicism and pride of the Japanese people. In fact, General Kuribayashi had attended Harvard, and traveled cross-country in an auto. He knew the American people. Instinctively he realized that heavy casualties were America's weakness. His plan therefore was to fight a battle of attrition, inflict such horrific casualties on American forces that public outcry would demand that America not invade the Japanese mainland, and the war would come to a speedy end with an honorable surrender offered to Japan by the Allies.
Ironically, Kuribayashi's plan worked too well. American casualties on Iwo Jima were enormous and the idea of an American invasion of the Japanes mainland was horrifying to American statesmen and military minds—invasion was put at the price of over a million casualties, Japanese and American. Thus, the decision to drop nuclear bombs on Japan.
General Kuribayashi's Iwo Jima strategy was two-fold:
1. The Japanese would not fight defensively at the water's edge. Instead they would place defensive positions in the interior of the Island.
2. The Japanese would build underground positions, interconnecting tunnels and bunkers, and fight from these positions. This is known as "defense in depth."
The idea behind this novel strategy was to inflict as many casualties on the Marines as possible. The General would not permit any suicidal banzai charges. All Japanese attacks were coordinated and maximized to kill and wound as many Americans as possible.
It was an effective strategy. By the end of the terrible battle on Iwo Jima, 20,703 Japanese troops died and 216 were captured; there were 22, 000 in the original Japanese garrison. The Americans forces suffered 27,909 casualties.
This is the type of strategy, with variations, that Israel faced against Hizbullah last Summer, and that America faces in Iraq.
In fact, this is the strategy that the West will face for the forseeable future.
Casualties: Quality Not Quantity
The jihadists rely on a conflict of attritiion. A grinding series of theatrical confrontations—media is all-important in 4GW—designed to kill combatants and non-combatants, and send the message through a somewhat gullible media, that this is a war that cannot be won. The jihadists do not have to kill many people, but those they do kill have to die horrible, bloody deaths that will appear nightly on the evening news, and spread fear and discontent on You Tube. Thus jihadists rely on the western media to do much of their work for them, and the western media are as clay in their hands.
Homicide bombers are the perfect 4GW weapon. They are cheap, easy to aim, and they inflict mass fear on an entire society.
Homicide bombers also allows the jihadists to winnow out the excess baggage in their ranks. Jihadism is a Darwinian game, those that survive the longest are the best; the weak, the stupid put the best at risk so why not convince them to become martyrs. It's also an excellent way for women-hating jihadists to rid themselves of bothersome women: divorcees and accused adulterers.
The enemy knows Israel and America's weak point: casualties. Hence, Iwo Jima-like, they seek to inflict as many fatalities as possible in order to grind down the political will of the American and Israeli public. Mao referred to this as: "changing the correlation of forces."
On Iwo Jima, not one civilian was killed. Kuribayashi evacuated the few civilians who were on the Island in order to spare them a certain death.
But the jihadists have no compunctions about killing civilians. In fact, women and children are preferred targets.
1. Killing civilains undermines ordinary life. Everyone becomes hostage to the threat of random terror.
2. Through indiscriminate slaughter the jihadists signal that they are "irrationally" committed to their cause. This freezes the blood of ordinary Americans and Israelis for this is an enemy that cannot be understood nor repulsed.
3. Thus: Stockholm Syndrome takes hold of the liberal establishment and they parrot the grievances of the jihadists, in essence excusing the jihadist butchery and blaming the victim. To wit: the so-called Palestinians would not commit such horrible deeds of violence unless they were pushed into a corner by the oppressive Israelis. It's the classic defense used by men who abuse their wives: "She made me do it." And often the wife adds: "Yes, it's my fault my husband beats me, I'm such a nag."
The Logic of Defeat
Following this liberal logic, one is inevitably lead to the grim conclusion that there is no war in which the West can triumph over the jihadists. We should not even fight because we will "create more jihadists." Or: We should not fight because we have no business trying to impose our values on their culture. Or: We should not fight because it's Israel's fault. Or: They want us to attack, therefore we shouldn't attack. Or: It's all about oil. Or: It's all about Haliburton. Or: Harry Reid's eloquent summation, "We've already lost the war." Or: John Edwards recently stating: "The War on Terror is a bumper sticker." And finally: We should negotiate with the terrorists, bring them "into the political process."
Liberals have shut down ever avenue of fighting the jihadists. In essence, they have validated the rhetoric and violence of the jihadists. Liberals and those on the left have been soundly defeated by 4th Generation propaganda. Democrats have abolished the words "Islamic Terrorism" from their vocabulary. This is a huge victory for the jihadist media offensive, and you can be sure that the Islamic radicals thank Allah every day for the oh-so-cooperatve Democrats.
What will Democrats fight for? Not surprisingly, their focus , is on alleged global warming. This is an enemy they can get excited about. They get to attack their favorite targets: big bad corporations; they avoid being accused of that phantom prejudice, Islamophobia. And Democrats convince themselves that they are the righteous who are fighting for the future of the planet.
Interpolation
The only group guilty of Islamophobia are Muslims. Sunni and Shia who slaughter each other as a religious duty, on a regular basis.
End Interpolation
Let's be clear, it's easier to fight the weather than the fanatic who wants to behead your children. For if you acknowledge the jihadist as a mortal danger, well then, you have to do something about it, and liberals are incapable of summoning the will to fight for their will has been steadily eroded on the shoals of muticulturalism.
But the jihadists will not go away. They are committed. They tell us so every single day. They want Sharia. They want Europe to become Muslim and turned into a caliphite. They want to destroy Israel, wipe Jews and Christians off the face of the earth.
Not Losing is Winning
In 4th GW the jihadists do not have to win in order to triumph.
He simply has to survive—like a cockroach after a nuclear blast. The jihadists only has to lay low, and then pick up his Kalachnikov after the enemy has withdrawn and returned home. This gives the jihadist his victory.
Israel gave the jihadists such a victory in Gaza.
America did the same when she withdrew from Somalia.
For jihadists not losing is the name of the game.
Withdrawal is Surrender
In Israel, withdrawing from Judea and Samaria, the West Bank, as so many counsel, will not result in a political settlement. It will simply set the stage for the next round where the jihadists will train their sights on Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jerusalem. Those who think otherwise are not connected to history—or reality. They have been beaten, badly, by the 4th Generation Warfare the jihadists have been waging against Israel since the founding of the state. For it uses all networks to convince the homeland and policy makers that their strategic goals are either unachievable or too costly.
Too, a withdrawal from Iraq will not end in a neat political settlement, but in even wider butchery among the trans-national jihadists vying to hollow out and plunder the state; and probably invasions from Turkey, to put down the restive Kurds in the North, and Iran to protect their Shia brothers from the Sunni majority. In any case, an American withdrawal is the jihadist opportunity to sow the chaos they desire and create butchery on an epic scale.
Of course, this slaughter will not make it to your evening news, for all western correspondents will be barred from reporting. Hence, whatever blood-letting we do hear about will be minimized and blamed on the Western democracies with the always clever: "We should not have been there in the first place."
4th GW players have to understand the time-line involved: this is a long war. The West must retrain their forces to fight the enemy that exists and not the enemy of the past. High-tech is all well and fine, but it can kill you when you go high-tech and your enemy goes lower-tech.
And this: the jihadist enemy must know that his atrocities will be met brutal retaliation, not withdrawal or "redeployment." They must also know that Western democracies can bear the pain inflicted on them; one cannot fight without incurring casualties. Then and only then will we triumph over these Islamic barbarians.
In case you missed it, here's Lack of Clarity I, 4GW.
Posted by Robert J. Avrech at June 4, 2007 07:57 AM
Comments
Seraphic Secret is private property, that's right, it's an extension of our home, and as such, Karen and I have instituted two Seraphic Rules and we ask commentors to act respectfully.
1. No profanity.2. No Israel bashing. We debate, we discuss, we are respectful. You know what Israel bashing is. The world is full of it. Seraphic Secret is one of the few places in the world that will not tolerate this form of anti-Semitism. That's it. Break either of these rules and you will be banned.
If we could just get some fore-sighted leaders, I think the people would follow, no matter what the sacrifice. It seems like here in America, both parties have decided that asking for sacrifice is suicide. As you have just describe, NOT sacrificing is suicide.
Posted by: Jake at June 4, 2007 12:18 PM
Jake:
People do sacrifice, on an enormous scale. Of course I refer to the families and friends of our troops.
The problem in fighting 4GW conflicts is that there is no single front, no series of sharp strategic battles that lead to a final decisive battle. This is 3rd GW.
It is the very nature of 4GW and for the civilian populations of the West that they live in a severly disconnected world. They are told that there is a War on Terror, yet what they see and hear in the mainstream media does not reflect this reality. In fact, the images and commentary which comes out of Iraq looks like a series of blunders and defeats.
In the media, there is little awareness of the enormous institutional problems in adapting to a new kind of warfare. This ignorance leads to appalling analysis and a basic misunderstanding of the very nature of the conflict thrust upon us by trans-national Islamic terrorists, and rogue nation states such as Iran and Syria.
Western citizens go about their business shopping at malls, cheering when Paris Hilton goes to the slammer, living ordinary lives. That there is no material sacrifice for Western citizens convinces them that the war is not "serious" hence we should not fight such a war, and so the Democrat's mantra to "redeploy our troops."
Meanwhile, it's very easy to sacrifice if you really want to:
1. Send packages and letters to our troops overseas.
2. Head to nearest VA hospital and visit our wounded troops.
3. Support Israel against the various boycotts aimed at her. Invest in Israeli companies, buy Israeli bonds, buy Israeli products. Invite Israeli speakers to come to your Synagogue or Church to talk about the situation in Israel.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.seraphicpress.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at June 4, 2007 01:18 PM
Robert,
As a former Marine myself, with loved ones still serving, thank you for your support.
Posted by: Melissa at June 4, 2007 03:06 PM
Israel is on the front line of the 4GW.
With the daily terror alerts, the recent war in Lebanon and the non stop missile barage on Sderot one would think that the average Israeli(unlike the avg. american) would be absorbed in defeating the jihadist terror structure.
However , we find the opposite to be true. Most Israeli's assume the liberal view and would be happy to withdraw from territories for "peace".
I cannot understand the Israeli leftist mentality. After repeated failed attempts(Oslo,Gaza Withdrawal etc.) the left continues to believe that the conflict can be resolved with concessions. How is this possible?
How can any rational thinking Israeli actually believe that peace is possible through weakness and the concept of land for peace
Posted by: David at June 4, 2007 03:14 PM
Melissa:
You're welcome. And thanks so much for your service and sarifice.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at June 4, 2007 03:55 PM
David:
You are quite right, Israel is on the front line of the War on Terror. Her position is quite unique for her forces are fighting an old-fashioned border war, yet at the same time, she fights a wider conflict with Iran, and Syria. Israel has to maintain conventional 3GW forces and doctrine in order to repulse possible nation-state attacks, but must also retool a good part of forces for 4GW.
As for Israelis who urge appeasement, well, leftist ideology demands this flight from reality.
Posted by: Robert at June 4, 2007 04:58 PM
You are correct; concise; and to the point.
As the new Dennis Miller would say, "I like the cut of your jib."
This is a nice political piece that ought to be widely disseminated.
However, I know that I have mentioned this before, to the level of annoyance but, why O why cannot there not be a concerted effort by those who are able, to promulgate information in such a fashion (movies, television, etcetera) that it would be possible for the mass populace to both enjoy such theater and be convinced at the same time of the necessity of fighting the good fight?
Surely there must be people with sufficient money and power in the industry that think like you do that would look favorably upon such an endeavor...
Kol tuv...
Posted by: Moishe3rd at June 4, 2007 05:53 PM
Moishe:
Thanks so much for your kind words.
I'm afraid that folks in Hollywood are for the most part uncritical liberals and leftists. They hate President Bush more than they hate the jihadists and they see Michael Moore as an important truth teller.
Naturally, many of these people are Jewish and their leftist world-view paralyzes them into a conditional support of Israel that insists on a "peace process" and a "land for peace" deal.
In short, they are jihadist enablers.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at June 4, 2007 06:11 PM
Response to David (03:14 PM) regarding the mindset of the average Israeli - From Rabin and onward the Israeli Governments' message to the public is that we are making peace. To make peace one must make 'painful concessions'. There is no other option. Blah blah blah. Thus as soon as you see yourself as a peacemaker you are no longer a warrior. If you are now into making peace you most certainly don't go out to attack. It makes not an iota of difference that in reality - Israel is still fighting for its very survival and therefore needs not only to defend but also to attack. Another connection one can possibly make - is that as long as Israel had leaders who were born or brought up in the Diaspora - they brought with them the intrinsic knowledge that as Jews we must totally rely on ourselves for protection and continuation. Israeli born leaders either do not have that or lost it along the way.
Posted by: Bat Melech at June 4, 2007 11:21 PM
Bat Melech:
Excellent point. As we look at the triumph of the Six Day War we can clearly see that the leaders of the state then were resolute men and women who understood the nature of the enemy and the conflict. Since then, there has been a steady erosion in leadership. Let us hope that this can be turned around.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at June 5, 2007 09:47 AM
Robert/Bat Melech:
So you think that only diaspora born jews have the gumption to fight for Israels survival?
Come on thats a little farfetched even for the most consevative right winger.
Trust me I have lived in Israel for over 15 years and I am quite confidant that Israeli born leaders are very capable of waging war on the enemy with the same resolute that Ben-Gurion did. Believe me Israelis know that they can only count on themselves.
The reason in my opinion for the severe liberal leftist slant the Israeli public has taken on over the past 15 years is mostly due to economics and fatigue.
Israelis also want to have an AAA rating with the IMF.
Israelis also want to drive Lexus' and vacation in Europe.
Israelis know that when there is destabilization business is bad, when we concede territory business is good.
The defense budget in Israel places an exhorbitant taxation on the general public.
Americans would riot in the streets if they had pay 17% sales tax or 40% income tax.
Lets face it most American jews would never leave their comfortable affluent lifestyles to live in Israel for ideology.
War fatigue has also taken its toll on the Israeli psyche. Wouldn't every american jewish mother do anything in her power to prevent her son from going to war?
Why is the Israeli jewish mother placed in such a situation just because her grandparents moved to Palestine instead of New York. Aren't all jews worldover responsible for our homelands defense? Shouldn't all jews volunteer to serve in the IDF?
I don't necessarily agree with the above arguments but after living here for such a long time I can understand them. Also, being Israeli I detest when my countries leaders are derided by non-israelis(only we have the right to do that LOL).
Posted by: David at June 9, 2007 12:45 PM
David:
I have to admit: I'm puzzled by your last comment. Are you actually serious? The reason for liberal appeasement mentality is economic,and the IMF?
This sounds suspiciously like a Marxist/materialist analysis wherein everything is reduced to economic interests: there is no ideology, no strategic thought, no religious or secular guiding philosophy, no political will.
Dovid'll, are you a Commie?
Forgive me, with all due respect, I don't buy your argument.
As for Diaspora Jews not having the right to criticize dopey Israeli leaders: well, gee willikers, what else are we going to do with our lives? I mean we're Jews, critical discourse is a religious obligation.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at June 10, 2007 10:25 AM
Robert my last comment was meant to try to explain the mindset of the Israeli Left.
(I don't necessarily agree with the above arguments...)
I for one am not a commie(no ones ever called me that before). However, I can not actually call myself a true capitalist since I chose to forgoe a very very lucrative career in the states to live in Israel (yes I am an idealist/Zionist).
My Israeli friends actually have dubbed me the only true american zionist they know.
My indepth understanding of the Israeli society has led me to some very startling conclusions regarding the Israeli attitude toward the Arab Israeli conflict.
Most secular Israelis believe that Israel is a conquering power and should cease and desist all aggressive behavior toward the arabs i.e road blocks, military strikes, removal of the security fence etc.
Almost all of my secular friends believe that Israel is to blame for the current conflict-that Israel is an occupying power and the arabs have no choice but to resist occupation. They feel only Israel can solve the problem by disengagenment.
The large majority of israelis believe that monetary gains associated with 'peace' are more important than the jewish homeland.
Don't forget that most Israelis are not religious and have no true spiritual connection with this countries theological roots.
The left believe that the IMF is more important than Rachels tomb. And that the multibillion dollar tourist industry outweighs our right to East Jerusalem.
Did you know that almost every industrialist(Strauss, Wertheim etc) in this country is a Left liberal?
Didn't you ever wonder why?
Don't you realize that the true driving force behind arab appeasement was to create a 'new middle east'-Shimon Peres wanted Israel to withdraw to the suicide borders so Elbit could sell defense systems to England.
Robert, I don't expect you to really understand the many intricacies and the Israeli mentality toward the conflict. A person can only truely know a society from within.
After living here for so many years, having arrived 2 months before the signing of Oslo I can honestly say that I'm tired.
PS. I read your book over the weekend-loved it!!!
Posted by: David at June 11, 2007 12:04 PM
David:
I was being tongue in cheek with the commie crack :) I know you are anything but.
I appreciate your observations about the Israeli left. I still don't buy an exclusively materialist argument. I know plenty of left-wingers and they are all true-believers in their ideology. Back in the 60's and 70's they were in the SDS and supporting the Viet Cong, years before that their parents were apologizing for Stalin's mass murder and gulags, during the Cold War these creatures urged co-existence with Communism, an evil imperialist ideology of tyranny and went nuts when President Reagan referred to the Evil Empire.
Now these same "useful idiots," Lenin's label for Western liberals, enable jihad.
Being on the left means never learning, never apologizing for being wrong at every important turn of history.
The Israeli left are already on the ash heap of history: Gaza.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at June 12, 2007 09:08 AM
Robert:
I agree that there are many hard wing leftists out there. Olmerts wife and daughters are among them!!
Excellent observation about being on the left means never having to say your sorry.
Now that I think about it when I confront my leftist friends over the failure of Oslo and Gaza they always seem to manage to tapdance their way around the issue.
Posted by: David at June 12, 2007 10:42 AM