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September 12, 2007
Rosh Hashanah 2007
Eruv Rosh Hashanah, commonly known as The Jewish New Year, but in truth referred to as Yom Ha-Zikaron, Day of Remembrance, or Yom Teruah, the Day of Sounding the Shofar. Now we are witness to a series of violent assaults on the existence of the State of Israel.
Last Thursday, the Israeli Air Force penetrated deeply into Syrian territory and apparently bombed an Iranian arms shipment that was being transferred to Hizbullah.
However, there is something wrong with this picture.
Iran are constantly arming Hizbullah. It's non-stop. Why would Israel suddenly spring into action and fly over Turkey then penetrate so deeply into Syrian that the IAF were just a few miles from the Iraqi border?
The intel for this raid has been building for months. Security was top-level. The raid was perfectly planned, split-second timing was crucial; this was a daring attack, extremely dangerous and carried potentially serious international blow back.
In truth, Israel had no choice.
The North Koreans have been selling nuclear material to the Syrians. And this cannot stand.
As John, from the invaluable military blog Op For, explained to Seraphic Secret:
This is cause for concern. The hardest part about constructing a bomb is finding grade fissible material. If Iran bought direct from the North Koreans, the Syrians could put together a crude device in short order. Mating it to a delivery system, different story. But who needs missiles and jets when you have a fanatic with a back pack and access to Israeli cities?
There was a second purpose to the Israeli raid, and that was to test Syrian radar and ground defenses. If you check your world maps you'll see that the most direct route from Israel to Iran is over Syria.
Sooner or later Israel must take out the Iranian nuclear facilities.
With the success of this raid the IAF has an excellent portrait of the capabilities of Syrian radar and their reaction times. Syria did not scramble a single jet. Not surprising. Their pilots are grapes; they would be annihilated by Israeli top-guns. Syria would be left without jets or pilots. Assad's regime would be defenseless against an always looming military coup, not to mention Syria's bellicose Arab and non-Arab—Iran—brethren.
North Korea, the hermit kingdom, might be dismantling parts of her nuclear program, but at the same time this cash-starved tyranny is doing a brisk business with Iran and any other trans national jihadist group with hard currency to spare.
This unholy marriage cannot be ignored by Israel. Even the current Israeli government, foolish and ineffectual as it is, recognizes an existential threat when it looks them straight in the eye. It's not hard to mistake the face of a genocidal, Holocaust denying regime.
For the moment, Gazastan, the de facto Palestinian state, must be contained—turn off the power for crying out loud—military might and political treasure must be summoned for the real threat. Indeed the true war lies, as it has for over 30 years, in Persia.
As we move into the most solemn days in the Jewish calendar, Karen and I thank all our Seraphic Friends for your friendship and support. Let us all pray for victory over our common enemies.
Kesivah vachasimah tovah.
Seraphic Secret will be observng Rosh Hashanah and then Shabbat, so we will be off-line until Sunday.
Posted by Robert J. Avrech at September 12, 2007 10:51 AM
Comments
Seraphic Secret is private property, that's right, it's an extension of our home, and as such, Karen and I have instituted two Seraphic Rules and we ask commentors to act respectfully.
1. No profanity.2. No Israel bashing. We debate, we discuss, we are respectful. You know what Israel bashing is. The world is full of it. Seraphic Secret is one of the few places in the world that will not tolerate this form of anti-Semitism. That's it. Break either of these rules and you will be banned.
I *knew* there was more to that story than what I was reading. Thanks for the info. Seems the White House is also thinking about taking out Iran's nuke program. The liberals' heads will explode over that.
Posted by: Dr. Carol at September 12, 2007 01:22 PM
Dr. Carol:
Two things I love watching:
1. Kurosawa movies.
2. Liberals' heads exploding.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.seraphicpress.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at September 12, 2007 01:55 PM
Hi Robert,
I read these same reports earlier today. One interesting twist in this is that Israel (or the U.S.) might actually have the tacit support of Arab regimes for a strike on Iran. Obviously, none of these regimes fancies the idea of a nuclear Iran. (How ironic; yet another example of how Israel is in fact a stabalizing force in the Middle East.) Another scenario I've heard: Washington would carry out air strikes after the election, when Bush is a lame duck.
A final thought: Israel's Air Force could do a good job, but the U.S. Air Force could clearly do a better one. This was driven home to me by, among other things, looking at the wreckage of terrorist vehicles destroyed by the U.S. and Israeli militaries. Israel's bombs usually leave a bit of black, twisted wreckage. American bombs leave just a back smudge and crater. Clearly, America's bombs are more powerful, which drives home that this is a job for U.S. firepower -- smart bombs, bunker busters, the whole shebang.
Posted by: David at September 12, 2007 02:36 PM
David:
The dirty secret of the Arab/Sunni world is that they count on Israel to contain the Iranian/Shia terrorist threat.
Regarding U.S. vs. Israeli Air Force: You know what, twisted wreckage or black smudge in the desert, dead is dead.
I do not believe that the U.S is going to attack Iran. Heck, why bother, when Israel will do the job, risk serious casualties, certain Iranian retaliation, domestic turbulence in the form of escalated Arab terrorism, and massive political heat from the European Jew-haters?
No, America has her hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan, oh and the U.S. Congress which is none too friendly either.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at September 12, 2007 02:51 PM
Why should Israel have all the fun?
I say let's divide up the job. Israel to take out the Syrian threat, while the US works over Iran.
My bet is that if HRC somehow fools the voters into electing her, that Bush WILL send in the bombers in Nov/Dec '08. If a republican wins, he may leave it to them.
Posted by: XP at September 12, 2007 06:41 PM
Shana Tova to all the Avrechs.
Posted by: Jack at September 16, 2007 01:31 AM
XP:
A nice thought, but I really doubt that America will attack Iran. As I've said before, America has her hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan. She will let Israel carry the ball. Though America will supply tactical support and of course aid in gathering intelligence.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at September 16, 2007 11:24 AM
Jack:
Shana Tova to you and yours.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at September 16, 2007 11:25 AM
Robert,
You may be right, but I hope the US will do more than provide tactical support. I think it would be shameful for the US to "outsource" dealing with Iran.
In my opinion, an American attack which knocks out Iran's nuke facilities and other military targets would dramatically improve the conditions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Stability in both countries would be easier to achieve with the removal of Iranian interference.
Posted by: XP at September 16, 2007 06:00 PM
XP:
Not sure if I'd call it outsourcing. Truth is, Iran is a direct threat to Israel's national security hence it really makes sense for Israel to deal with Iran. America will help, of course, in many ways, but Iran are not aiming nukes at American cities. We have to be realistic here and as much as we'd like to see American fighter groups over Tehran, it's just not going to happen. Though we do have several carrier groups in the region to back up the IDF with some lovely tactical warheads.
In any case, this raid into Syria puts the entire region on notice that as much as they like to boast about the Second Lebanon War and Hizbullah, when it comes to a real fight, to true strategic moves, the IDF still rules the neighborhood while the Arabs and the Iranians are just brutal terrorists.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at September 16, 2007 06:17 PM
Robert,
You are right, Israel is more at risk and will take down the Iranians when necessary.
I am still hoping for footage of B-1s and F-117s over Natanz.
Posted by: XP at September 16, 2007 06:46 PM
XP:
XP:
You'll get footage, in Hebrew. Look for Seraphic Secret to provide a Hollywoodish translation:)
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at September 16, 2007 07:28 PM