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December 19, 2007
Israel's Intelligence Estimate, Seraphic's Estimate, Plus Fashion Advice for Tzipi Livni
By now we've all heard about the NIE, which has been wrongly misinterpreted to indicate that America should not be worried about the Persian Nuclear program, when in fact, the NIE states the exact opposite.
Now comes, the Israeli Intelligence Estimate.
It's good news slash bad news time.
Let me just state for the record that I lived in Israel before, during and after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Hence, my faith in the soundness of intelligence reports is somewhat jaded. Even as the Egyptians and Syrians were massing on Israel's borders there were those in the intelligence community who insisted to PM Golda Meir that the Arabs were engaged in saber rattling or, y'know, war games.
Intelligence estimates are an art form, not a science. You do the best you can with the information you have; and good analysts should isolate politics from their memos like bad viruses.
This separation of politics from analysis is wholly absent from the most recent American NIE and it is a deeply regrettable. It does no credit to our national security, nor does it serve the good names of our sixteen security services.
Deep pessimism alongside cautious optimism—those are the two key principles that emerge from this year's Annual Israeli Intelligence Estimate. The report will be presented to the security cabinet in several days time by IDF Intelligence Chief Major-General Amos Yadlin, but the highlights are here for you now in a Ynet exclusive report.
To read the complete article, please click here.
Seraphic Secret would like to make its own recommendations to the Israeli Security establishment. We make no pretense of being politically impartial, we freely admit that we are on the right wing of the spectrum, but we believe that our ideas are common sense and backed up by historical precedent and sound military doctrine.
1. The Persian nuclear threat is not just an existential threat to Israel but a huge regional headache to the Sunni Arab states. Just as Israel eliminated the Syrian/North-Korean nuclear threat, Israel will have to take out the Persian facilities. The plan is in place. Training takes place round the clock. Everyone will heave a huge sigh of relief, especially the Saudis and the Jordanians.
2. Gaza. Do not invade. Quick, turn out the lights. I have to admit, I'm getting frustrated. I keep giving level-headed advice and yet Ehud Olmert and Tzipi Livni pay no attention.
Snarky Digression: Tzipi, hey, at least listen to me when it comes to fashion advice. I work in Hollywood. I know something about image making.
Ready?
For the love of G-d, lose the pant suits! Who do you think you are, Hillary? I'm sorry to break the news to you, but you do not look like the Foreign Minister of the Jewish State. Nope, you look like an ill-tempered drag queen from New Jersey whose hair has been glazed in Canola oil.
Are you allergic to shampoo and conditioner? How about a nice trumpet skirt that's absolutely flattering to your figure, and a rich silk blouse with a strand of simple pearls. No need to teeter on killer heels, three inch classic Chanels will do just fine. And top off the look with a buttery leather handbag, something deeply colored that will really pop. Come on, girl, you rep the Jewish people. Even Golda looked more lady-like and cute than poor dowdy you.
Anywhoo. Why, pray tell, does Israel supply Gaza with the fuel and power that enables Israel's sworn enemies to rain rockets and mortars on Israel every three minutes since Gaza became Judenrein in June 2006? H/T link to graph, Soccer Dad
People say: you can't punish the entire population for the crimes of a few terrorists. I go: the population of Gaza elected these genocidal terrorists. The Gazans are adults, they made a free electoral choice that was certified by none other than Jimmy Carter. They hide and even celebrate these terrorists. This makes Gaza a hostile entity.
You know how the allies won World War II? By punishing the German and Japanese citizens who supported their genocidal regimes. The Arabs deserve no less. In fact, they deserve quite a bit more.
3. The IDF should continue with the targeted killings. In the past few days they have knocked off an impressive list of terrorists, eleven senior Islamic Jihad operatives were killed in Gaza, including Majd al Harazin, head of Islamic Jihad's military wing and Karim Dahlul, director of their Qassam missile production.
This indicates that human intelligence in Gaza has improved along with electronic surveillance via drones and other cool Hollywood SFX methods. The terrorists are thugs, clever thugs, but they are stuck a few generations behind the super smart Jews in the technology field and this puts them at a severe disadvantage. The IDF should keep offing the terrorist, and stay on the offensive. This keeps the terrorists awake at night, has them scrambling from safe house to safe house; their cell phones are useless—Israeli surveillance are listening. And best of all, the terrorists are wary of every loser cousin who might bear a mysterious grudge and flip for Shin Bet.
This constant pressure reduces the terrorist network to a profoundly constricted circle, unable to better their military resources, or mount effective terrorist attacks. Inevitably, the cells stagnate, members turn on one another due to personality conflicts, mutual suspicion and creeping paranoia. The terrorists become disoriented, hunted things, nice fat targets for Israeli smart bombs.
4. For goodness sake, more roadblocks. As you can see, they work in thwarting horrendous terrorist plots.
5. Lebanon. Hellooo! Do not invade. Once Syria takes over, and that's pretty much inevitable the way things are playing out, and Hizbullah/Iran hollow out the country so that it's just a geographical entity for competing transnational terrorist gangs, there's going to be a lull. And then something bad will happen. Hizbullah will unleash from the Land Once Known as Lebanon against Israel—and what should Israel do?
Simple: The Israeli Air Force should fly to Syria and reduce Puppy Assad's palace to rubble. Destroy the electrical grid to Damascus and while the IAF is at it, remind the Syrian air force what a bunch of grapes they are.
Believe me, Lebanon will go very quiet, very quickly.
6. President Mahmoud Abbas. Let's be honest, this is the guy who has made a career of denial. He wrote his Ph.D at the, ahem, prestigious Moscow Friendship University on the charming topic of Holocaust denial. He financed the Munich massacre. Oh, come on, let's call him what he was, the bag-man. But he denied knowing what was going to happen. And now as President of the so-called PalAbs, whenever one of his terrorist "policemen" murders a Jew, he denies knowledge or responsibility. Yup, the perfect President for the so-called Palestinian National movement.
Ignore him. His own people do, why do we pay him any deference?
7. The government of Israel should announce that Jerusalem is the undivided capital of Israel. There's nothing to talk about. The Temple Mount? Israel runs the show. Again, nothing to talk about.
8. Israel must never, ever retreat from one inch of land; this includes all of Judea and Samaria. It is intolerable that any territory be declared Judenrein. If Arabs whine that the presence of Jews is intolerable to their delicate sensibilities, well then, the world should recognize their sensibilities for what they are: warped Jew-hatred.
9. Oh man, I just ran out of gas. It's the Fast of the 10th of Teveth and my vision just went: wow, my office is spinning.
And it was in the ninth year of his reign, in the tenth month, in the tenth (day) of the month, that Nebuchadnetzar, King of Babylon came, he and all his hosts, upon Yerushalayim, and he encamped upon it and built forts around it. And the city came under siege till the eleventh year of King Tzidkiyahu. On the ninth of the month famine was intense in the city, the people had no bread, and the city was breached.
—Kings II: 25, 1-4
10. Karen and I wish all our Seraphic Friends a meaningful fast.
Links: Seraphic Friend Shrink Wrapped has two very fine post that touch on many of the same areas we discuss.
And from Ocean Guy, Simple graphics that prove the more financial aid to the so-called PaliArabs, the more murdered Jews. Okaaay, so 7.4 billion dollars should buy a lot of dead Jews.
Finally, on this holy day, are we surprised to discover that Arabs have desecrated the grave of biblical Joshua?
No, we are not.
Posted by Robert J. Avrech at December 19, 2007 10:57 AM
Comments
Seraphic Secret is private property, that's right, it's an extension of our home, and as such, Karen and I have instituted two Seraphic Rules and we ask commentors to act respectfully.
1. No profanity.2. No Israel bashing. We debate, we discuss, we are respectful. You know what Israel bashing is. The world is full of it. Seraphic Secret is one of the few places in the world that will not tolerate this form of anti-Semitism. That's it. Break either of these rules and you will be banned.
" ... Seraphic Secret would like to make its own recommendations to the Israeli Security establishment. We make no pretense of being politically impartial, we freely admit that we are on the right wing of the spectrum, but we believe that our ideas are common sense and backed up by historical precedent and sound military doctrine. ... "
Agree totally.
Would like to add perhaps an interesting note from one of the Chabad emissaries to Chevron
He said, as almost everyone, including the Arabs, knows, that the site of the Graves of the Forefathers, is not within the building where people go, but much further under it.
In previous times, before 1948, and immediately after 1967, some Jews went down to the level of where the actual Graves are thought to be, but did not go in, but went only to pray closer to the actual site.
They returned in peace.
No Arab who has tried to do the same, has ever returned, and it is said, that because of their great embarrassment, they have, (or asked the Israelis to), made the passageway 'sealed'.
There is a similar story in the Gemorra, about one of the Kohanim in the Second Temple, who pointed out where the Ark of the Commandments was, and the passageway to it, and he did not remain alive, and the passageway was then sealed.
We hope that the Israeli gov. will listen and maintain the Sanctity of the Temple, and keep it in Jewish hands, but the bottom line is, that no matter what,
The Holy One of Israel will protect it!
Here is another source agreeing with Robert, but somewhat funnier:
And here are his thoughts on Gun Control
For anyone interested, here is the collection of 90 os his vlogs on youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/profile_videos?user=TheUltimateJew
Posted by: exdemexlib at December 19, 2007 03:54 PM
Great rant; excellent prescription; are you in-network on the Israeli govt. insurance plan?
Posted by: kishke at December 19, 2007 04:33 PM
Exdem:
You did Jackie Mason a disservice. I just watched three of his vlogs and he is quite the opposite of funny. He is downright serious, and profound. I thought his segment on Chanukah, with the excerpt from Romney's speech was classic and should be played in every classroom in this country. It is a lesson in civics and the fundamental principles of the separation of church and state that has been muddled in the current climate of political correctness and secularization. I applaud Jackie Mason, and did laugh at one line, (think Oprah and scale) but most of his monologues are more inspiring sermon than ha-ha standup. Spread the word.
Posted by: Karen Avrech at December 19, 2007 06:58 PM
Kishke:
Thanks so much. I rant well when starving. No, no govt. insurance. Plan has been, er, appropriated by Olmert & Co. and handed over to his cronies in Ramallah.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.seraphicpress.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at December 19, 2007 07:47 PM
Robert, I know you have a weakness for grandmothers, but come on, Golda ladylike? Mrs. Doubtfire is more like it.
Posted by: Karen Avrech at December 19, 2007 09:13 PM
" ... Robert, I know you have a weakness for grandmothers, but come on, Golda ladylike? ..."
as Robert 'might' say ;-)
see the Ingrid Bergmann portrayal of Golda
Posted by: exdemexlib at December 20, 2007 06:27 AM
I loved this post until I came up to the fashion advice. For me it kind of killed the credibility of the post (or at least hobbled it a little.) I don't think I need to say that embarrassing a person in a public forum isn't exactly tasteful (kind of like an ill fitted pants suit.) In any case as politician I'm more frightened of her policy than what she puts on her back. I promise I'm not ranting and I hope I haven't insulted anyone. Aliza
Posted by: Aliza Z at December 20, 2007 07:59 AM
Thank you for pointing out to this Gentile that this is the anniversary of the fall of Jerusalem to the Babylonians. A sobering bit of history, that.
I have tended to put out a flag on September 11. Maybe fasting would be more appropriate.
Posted by: Kent at December 20, 2007 09:22 AM
Aliza:
I understand and appreciate your feelings about my fashion advice just perfectly. And no, you have not insulted anyone. We appreciate your feedback. In fact, Karen warned me that my fashion advice was an uh-oh moment.
Did I listen?
No, I did not.
Here's my thinking: when a political figure is in a government whose policies are to expel Jews from their land, well, I have no problem getting a bit nasty about their fashion choices. It's petty, yeah, but small coin compared to their sins against the Jewish people.
Anyway, have a great Shabbos.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at December 20, 2007 09:50 AM
Kent:
Good to hear from you. Glad we can be of service.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at December 20, 2007 09:57 AM
Here's my thinking: when a political figure is in a government whose policies are to expel Jews from their land, well, I have no problem getting a bit nasty about their fashion choices. It's petty, yeah, but small coin compared to their sins against the Jewish people.
Anyway, have a great Shabbos.
All true, but we are better of if the woman can dress, as superficial as society is, her looking bad to her own constituents and collegues and can make for a shift down in position. Most people agree that Nixon would have faired better if he wasn't soo...well..let say...hard on the eyes and uncharismatic. THAT would be a boon and all because she can't mix and match. As much as people say "don't judge a book by it's cover," most people do and looking bad can really make you...look bad.
Good shabbos,
Aliza
Posted by: Aliza Z at December 20, 2007 10:18 AM
Aliza: Are sentences 2 and 3 out of sequence? With respect, that's the only way I can make sense out of your paragraph.
Posted by: kishke at December 20, 2007 01:15 PM
I was nodding my head in agreement until the fashion advice - "three inch classic chanels". You have obviously never worn 3" heels...it will kill your feet. 1-1/2" is more than sufficient. Other than that - my head is still nodding in agreement.
Posted by: Kateland at December 21, 2007 08:04 AM
HI Kishke,
I guess I was unclear. I personal think that to attack a person looks isn't anyway to garner sympathy for your view. The point I wanted to make (and obviously muddled) was that if the minster looks bad it actually helps your cause against her policies (although I can figure out what the heck they are really! I mean why the heck do all politician seem to have to wishy washy!) Ahem.. Anyway, as image conscious as western society is, if she looks bad physically people will also percieve her in a negative light...just because she looks bad. Silly but true. And believe me I know, I work in the smatta industry for about a decade now.
Aliza
Posted by: Aliza Z at December 21, 2007 08:15 AM
Kateland:
Thanks so much for your feedback.
You have obviously never worn 3" heels...
I confess, I have not.
Hey, I thought I was being, y'know, conservative by not recommending 5-inch Christian Louboutain stilettos. But then, I live in and work in Hollywood.
Just goes to show.
BTW, we also strongly urge Ms. Livni to stick to deep hues, the blues and reds, though not primaries——to contrast her chalk white skin and blond hair. She has a tendency to wear, all-wrong, light-colored fabrics which just wash-out her very nice features.
I'm not even going to start in on her make-up. It's a tragedy. And who does her hair? A bedouin sheep shearer?
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at December 21, 2007 09:09 AM
Some of this stuff sounds like gofugyourself.com guys. I don't thinks it appropiate for us to make such comments. Even if we live in Hollywood or NYC we're still Jews and must respect each other. After all, who are we to judge and how would the world judge us with so much backbiting?...and please don't say it's just for fun. I know if such thing were said of me I wouldn't find it very funny. I really think we can be above and beyond that.
Aliza
Posted by: Aliza Z at December 21, 2007 09:45 AM