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January 07, 2008
Nobel Prize Winner Aumann on War and Peace
“The expulsion of Jews from Gaza was stupid, venal, and barbaric. The expulsion of Jews from Gaza led directly to the war with Hizbullah, and now to the rain of missiles on S'derot.”
Nobel Prize laureate Professor Robert Aumann is speaking in my shul, The Young Israel of Century City. He has a snow-white beard, and an infectious, impish smile. The title of his speech is: War and Peace, a variation of his Nobel lecture.
Professor Aumann is speaking on Shabbos thus I'm unable to take notes, and so I apologize for any mistakes or misquotes. The professor is an eloquent and terrifyingly rational spokesman against appeasement and the trading of land for, well, war. His field is mathematics—game-theory to be precise—but he dispenses with all technical jargon for this lecture. He speaks in simple, down-to-earth prose, the language of common sense.
Professor Aumann explains that America won the cold war not by disarming, as so many peace groups demanded, but by taking the opposite, counter-intuitive strategy—arming to the teeth.
“America had strategic bombers in the air, carrying nuclear payloads 24/7, so the Soviet Union understood that they were under constant threat of nuclear attack. This tactic, overwhelming force, coupled with an overwhelming threat, prevented war. If we had disarmed, there would have been war.”
Professor Aumann goes on to analyze the situation in Israel: “The whole notion of demanding "peace now" is dangerous. It assures that there will be war. Our Arab cousins do not lack for patience, they are in it for the long haul. They understand that this is a multi-generational conflict. They tell us that the Crusaders came and went and they expect us to be gone too. Well, the more we keep begging for "peace now" the more we convince them that we have no staying power. We are our own worst enemies. We're a people with ants in our pants. We need to learn patience. If we demand peace now, we will never have peace now.”
On the homicide bombers: “Don't call them madmen. They act out of rational self-interest. Their tactics have worked. If not for homicide bombers Jews would never have been expelled from Gaza. I have a great deal of respect for these people. We must take them seriously. To dismiss them as crazy people is foolish. Again, they act out of rational self-interest. They know that terrorism works”
On War: “To dismiss war as irrational is wrong and short-sighted. Wars have been with humans since the dawn of civilization. Until quite recently war was viewed as something quite noble. But again, to dismiss war as irrational is to misunderstand that war is most often the action of rational actors acting out of self-interest with the best information they possess.”
Professor Aumann hammers home his message: “We must not display our desire for peace at any price. It is self-defeating. We must learn patience. We must show the Arabs that we are in Israel to stay. That nothing they do will dislodge us from our homeland, Israel. Too often, we are our own worst enemies.”
Professor Aumann's Nobel Lecture
Professor Aumann You Tube, Middle Eastern Games
Posted by Robert J. Avrech at January 7, 2008 12:26 PM
Comments
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1. No profanity.2. No Israel bashing. We debate, we discuss, we are respectful. You know what Israel bashing is. The world is full of it. Seraphic Secret is one of the few places in the world that will not tolerate this form of anti-Semitism. That's it. Break either of these rules and you will be banned.
Even though my tendency is to agree with Aumann, his credentials as a famous game theorist shouldn't be taken as evidence in favour of his views. In fact, the other top game theorist in Israel (Ariel Rubinstein) was one of the founders of Shalom Achshav.
In other words, Aumann's arguments should be judges on their merits without regard to his academic credentials.
Posted by: dd at January 7, 2008 06:20 PM
very powerful comments, with which I basically agree
Posted by: mark at January 7, 2008 08:02 PM