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May 22, 2008
The Idiot's Guide to the Israeli-Syrian Negotiations
A view from the Golan Heights.
The public is all shook up about the latest news that Israel and Syria are negotiating over the Golan Heights. I've read some incredibly scholarly pieces in the MSM and in the blogosphere explaining what's on the table, why now, and what to expect from these negotiations.
The consensus of opinion seems to be:
1. Israel wants to draw Syria away from the Iranian axis and giving back the Golan will, along with economic incentives, achieve this goal.
2. Israel wants peace on her Northern border and because land for peace deals have worked so well in the past—see Gaza—returning the Golan makes perfect sense.
3. Syria is tired of being isolated by the West so she's willing to negotiate with Israel in the hope of getting back the Golan.
This is all nonsense.
Here's what's going on:
1. Turkey, friendly to Israel—so friendly the IAF uses Turkish airspace for training—is anxious to show the other Muslim nations that she has some clout with the Israelis, thus she's arranged these negotiations.
2. Syria couldn't care less about getting back the Golan Heights. In fact, Syria prefers that Israel hold on to the land. In this way Syria can maintain her profile as a front-line, belligerent, anti-Zionist (the new anti-Semitism) nation and garner status in the Arab-Muslim world.
3. Syria realizes if she did get back the Golan then she'd have to position troops on the Heights—and sooner or later she'd start shooting. That's what the Syrians do when they have the high ground. And then the Israelis would unleash her air-force, her commandos, and the Syrian army would—once again—be utterly humiliated, and the Golan Heights would be back under Israel's control. No, for Syria, it's much safer to let the Israelis hold the Golan Heights, all the while screaming about occupation and injustice. Dopey leftists and college students eat up this victimization crap.
4. Syria has no intention of moving away from Iran's orbit. In fact, Syria's intelligence services are busier than ever in Lebanon helping Hizbullah—Persia's proxy—extend its dominance over the country. This is actually the seminal story in the Middle East. Lebanon is toast. Hizbullah is hollowing out the state and Shia dominance is almost assured. The Christians and Druze in Lebanon better get out while they can before the inevitable ethnic cleansing begins. It's going to get ugly and bloody. Hizbullah don't play by any rules known to civilized man.
5. Syria wants to pull focus from the U.N. investigations of the assassinations Syria has carried out in Lebanon. Negotiations look great to the dolts in the U.N. Meanwhile, Syrian agents are carrying out cold-blooded murder in Lebanon.
6. Syria has no interest in economic incentives. The ruling Baath Party is a brutal and corrupt tyranny. The best way of staying in power is by maintaining the status quo—keeping the economic screws on the people. We're talking about a country where every fax machine has to be registered with the government. Economic progress means freedom. That's the last thing Puppy Assad and his buddies desire.
7. Israel has entered these negotiations to placate their Turkish allies. Listen, the Israelis need that Turkish air space because sooner or later the IAF is going to be dropping in on Iran. The IAF trains for in-air refueling over the vast Turkish space. Israeli is tiny, geographically the size of a postage stamp—still way too large for the Arabs who object to the presence of Jooz in the Middle East—and doesn't allow for this maneuver.
8. Only the tin-foil hat leftists in Israel would agree to hand back the Golan to Syria. The strategic high ground is vital for Israel's security, and it's an important source of water—which the Syrians would love to divert.
9. Normally, these negotiations would be hush-hush, but Olmert wants to keep his job and stay out of jail so he's shooting his mouth off, in effect saying: “You can't fire me, I'm too important.”
10. Pay no attention to the raving Prime Minister of Israel. He's dispensable and disposable. In truth, he's a millstone around Israel's neck. The Second Lebanon War was just a wind-up for a combined larger attack from Gaza and Lebanon, sure to come. Israel can't afford to have this man in office.
11. In fact, Israel needs a Prime Minister who will act against the terror groups before they attack. Gaza must be subdued, and Lebanon, now a Persian satellite, must be deterred.
12. The negotiations between Israel and Syria will come to absolutely nothing. In fact, that's how they have been designed, for failure. It's a diplomatic shell game. In the end everyone can return to their corners, and blame the other side.
13. And the only real question is: when will Israel attack the Persian nuclear facilities?
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Posted by Robert J. Avrech at May 22, 2008 09:53 AM
Comments
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The pictures of Har Bintal bring back memories of our trip to Israel. It's a spectacular view. (We saw a rainbow stretching out over Syria.)
One of the ironies is that of the three countries I saw bordering Israel on that trip, the one that looks the least foreboding is Syria. Appearances can be deceiving.
Posted by: soccer dad at May 22, 2008 11:57 AM
was that a joke or something?
Posted by: sara at May 22, 2008 12:32 PM
We all need to be weaned off this absolute belief that negotiations are always good. They are not. Sometimes negotiations embolden enemies who otherwise would have no chance of defeating us on the battlefield or even in the court of public opinion.
In any political conflict you have three options: 1) War 2) Isolation/Cold War or 3) Negotiations. All three of these options have their pros and cons, none are always good or always bad.
In this case, true negotiations with Syria or any Arab enemy would be harmful.
As I joked yesterday, these talks with Syria are "indirect," because Israel is at the negotiating table and Syria is in the 7th century.
Posted by: Jake at May 22, 2008 12:55 PM
Soccer Dad:
You can stand in parts of California and look into Mexico and it looks like just more California.
It's not.
That's why so many Mexicans are pouring across our border.
Yup, appearances are deceiving.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.seraphicpress.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at May 22, 2008 01:06 PM
Jake:
Just one addition to your excellent comment. The Cold war was never truly cold. America vs. Russia, China, and Cuba were fighting proxy wars all across the globe throughout the cold war. Much blood was spilled. It was only cold insofar as regular American forces and Russian troops never met head to head on the field of battle, and of course, neither side resorted to nuclear weapons.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at May 22, 2008 01:10 PM
Excellent analysis. Let's hope it is all a sham, b/c otherwise it's too frightening to contemplate.
Posted by: kishke at May 22, 2008 02:21 PM
Kishke:
Israel has already done this dance with the Syrians. Rabin and Barak both went through the exact same motions in the past, remember?
This will face like vapor, just as it's meant to.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at May 22, 2008 03:58 PM
I don't agree with your assessment Robert. There has got to be an easier way to gain access to Turkish air space other than creating a hoax like this. And surely you can see the major advantage in removing Syria from the equation in the event of a strike on Iran.
Posted by: Ted at May 22, 2008 06:49 PM
Ted:
I welcome disagreements.
If a peace agreement is between Israel and Syria reached then I'll admit that I'm wrong.
And pigs will fly over Jerusalem.
This is not a hoax, this is called Middle Eastern diplomacy. Most of the so-called peace talks in the region are predicated on the parties knowing in advance that they will fail.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at May 22, 2008 07:40 PM
Olmert's spin cronies were all over the Israeli news airwaves these past few days. Of course they claim that the Syrian 'peace' initiative has nothing to do with his most recent corrupton scandal.
The Israeli public isn't buying into it.
The press has all but buried Olmert,and his political rivals are smellng blood.
It would seem that his demise it at hand.
However, if you thought that Reagan was teflon this guy is pure silk. I wouldn't be surprised he beats this recent scandal and goes on to complete his term in office.
Posted by: Gregg at May 23, 2008 02:23 PM
The word "returning" the Golan is just wrong. You "return" something if it's not yours. The Golan is ours.
On that doleful note, Shabbat shalom--great post!
Posted by: Yael at May 23, 2008 02:40 PM
Gregg:
If the Second Lebanon War didn't bring down Olmert nothing will.
President Reagan was not even close to Teflon.
You want Teflon, take a look at Barack Obama.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at May 23, 2008 04:56 PM
Yael:
Thanks so much for the correction. I was sloppy in my writing. You are quite right, the Golan belongs to Israel.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at May 23, 2008 04:59 PM