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May 12, 2008
The Fleet Positions Itself for War Against Iran
Currently, there is a large U.S. naval deployment that points to a an overwhelming military strike against the Persian nuclear facilities. The carrier rotations indicate a clear tactical pattern for war.
Why now?
Iran will not willingly give up her nuclear ambitions. That much is clear. Iran is intent in spreading its hegemony throughout the region. Currently, she is, through her proxy Hizbullah, in the process of turning Lebanon into another Gaza.
We can assume that America and Israel are sharing intelligence on this operation. The Saudis, who fear and detest the Shia Persians are, no doubt, opening their files on their Muslim brothers. The Gulf Sunnis are as anxious as Israel to defang the Shia Mullahs.
President Bush and his advisers cannot risk an Obama presidency, in effect, a second Jimmy Carter. Obama, an entrenched leftist, is an appeaser. The Persians, and every transnational terrorist movement, would eat him—and us—alive.
Nuclear weapons in the hands of the Mullahs would be a disaster for the region and for the civilized world. President Bush understands the geopolitical implications. And yet the American press yawns in the face of a regime that denies one Holocaust while it promises another.
Six weeks ago, President Bush signed a secret finding authorizing a covert offensive against the Iranian regime that, according to those familiar with its contents, “unprecedented in its scope.”
Bush’s secret directive covers actions across a huge geographic area – from Lebanon to Afghanistan – but is also far more sweeping in the type of actions permitted under its guidelines – up to and including the assassination of targeted officials. This widened scope clears the way, for example, for full support for the military arm of Mujahedin-e Khalq, the cultish Iranian opposition group, despite its enduring position on the State Department’s list of terrorist groups.
Similarly, covert funds can now flow without restriction to Jundullah, or “army of god,” the militant Sunni group in Iranian Baluchistan – just across the Afghan border — whose leader was featured not long ago on Dan Rather Reports cutting his brother in law’s throat.
Other elements that will benefit from U.S. largesse and advice include Iranian Kurdish nationalists, as well the Ahwazi arabs of south west Iran. Further afield, operations against Iran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon will be stepped up, along with efforts to destabilize the Syrian regime.
And this:
Our observations regarding developments began back in September of last year, as we began to watch how the rotations would come together for 2008. We have discussed 6+2 strategy for carriers before. The carrier strategy which was enabled by the Fleet Response Plan was designed to insure the Navy has 6 aircraft carriers available within 30 days to anywhere in the world, with 2 more available by 90 days. The theory is that beyond 90 days, the other 2 carriers not conducting a nuclear refueling would be available within 180 days. 6+2 is theory though, it usually involves several of those 6 carriers returning from deployment, thus the 30 day metric.
However, as the rhetoric builds, we observe 6+2 is getting very close to reality. Lets count them down.Here is the 6 for the 30 day response this summer:6 & 30 Days:USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) - Deployed to GulfUSS George Washington (CVN 73) - Deployed on way to JapanUSS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) - Next Atlantic Fleet Carrier to DeployUSS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) - Next Pacific Fleet Carrier to DeployUSS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) - Surge Atlantic Carrier Behind RooseveltUSS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) - Surge Pacific Carrier Behind Reagan2 & 90 Days:USS Kitty Hawk (CV 63) - Rotating from Japan to San Diego (Currently Deployed)USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) - Currently Deployed, Returning Home2 & 180 Days:USS Enterprise (CVN 65) - 16-month Extended Docking Availability Began April 11thUSS Nimitz (CVN 68) - Currently Deployed, Extended Drydock Availability Begins After DeploymentNuclear Refueling:USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) - Unavailable until end of 2008Check closely, we list both carriers for 60 days as deployed today, plus a 180 day carrier as deployed today. In other words, they won't be unavailable until the Navy decides them to be.
To read the complete article, please click here.Posted by Robert J. Avrech at May 12, 2008 09:16 AM
Comments
Seraphic Secret is private property, that's right, it's an extension of our home, and as such, Karen and I have instituted two Seraphic Rules and we ask commentors to act respectfully.
1. No profanity.
2. No Israel bashing. We debate, we discuss, we are respectful. You know what Israel bashing is. The world is full of it. Seraphic Secret is one of the few places in the world that will not tolerate this form of anti-Semitism. That's it. Break either of these rules and you will be banned.I think this is the best way to act. Do not telegraph what you're going to do for years in the news media... make your ultimatum, and then strike. Hopefully, you have the moral high ground, as we do here, and a capable military, which I know we have as well.
If only we had struck Iraq this way in 1991 and 2003. Perhaps al Qaeda wouldn't have had so much time to pour into Iraq if we could have just invaded in the summer of 2002, closed the borders and only dealt with the indigineous population.
This attack seems less logistically challenged since we're not looking to occupy the country, just take out some targets. We can't delay on this one.
Posted by: Jake at May 12, 2008 11:33 AM
Jake:
This problem with Iran goes back to Jimmy Carter's presidency.
He displayed incredible stupidity in dealing with the Mullah's and the world has been paying the price ever since.
I have no doubt there is a special place in hell for Jimmy Carter.
As for our carriers. There is no guarantee that they will attack, but let's hope. The firepower on hand is enough to turn all of Iran into a parking lot.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
at May 12, 2008 03:23 PM
If it happens, I hope it works. But if it doesn't, I don't think anybody should be naive about the possible consequences.
Iran retaliates. Remember the bomb at the US barracks in Beirut in 83. Well that will probably happen in Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, All over Iraq and Afghanistan, possibly even Germany, South Korea and God knows where else. Maybe this will keep happening over a sustained period of time. Maybe the US will take so many casualties that it will be unable to withstand the pressure to invade.
Can you imagine, Iraq Iran Afghanistan all under US occupation. Thousands of miles of inhospitable terrain, 150 million essentially hostile people under US administration, Arab, Kurd, Persian, Sunni, Shia all fighting the US. How could America sustain this, think of the spending, think of the cost of oil, think of the turmoil at home caused by opposition to the inevitable draft. If such a scenario were to occur, think of America in the year 2025. What type of country do you see. A country on top and in control or a country falling apart.
Am I overstating the seriousness of the crisis. I really hope so. All I really wanna say is that if somebody came up with an alternative. I would listen.
Posted by: Ted at May 12, 2008 04:02 PM
Iran is taking over Iran, moving into Chad and the Sudan, killing Americans in Iraq, killing Jews in israel through Gaza and Judea and Samaria. They don't need a pretext to act. They declared war on America thirty years ago and have been killing Americans and Jews and Sunni Muslims ever since—with impunity.
Notice, the strike force has no Marines presence at all.
Hence, no land attack. No occupation is planned or desired.
The awesome firepower is the exact opposite of how the Israeli do business: surgical air strikes with minimal casualties.
The firepower here will level the Iranian nuclear facilities. Nothing will be left standing for miles around.
The Iranians will retaliate by taking Iranian Jews, charging them as Zionist spies, beheading and hanging them in public.
There will be pogroms and mass arrests and torture.
And the world will say that the Jews brought it on themselves.
What else is new?
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
I know I saw something else about the Saudi unease about Iran. But here's another item.
Posted by: soccer dad at May 13, 2008 08:10 AM
I have been waiting and waiting patiently for the next installment of 'Lack of Clarity'.
Since the US has finally enacted the use of clandestine operations to fight the enemy I feel that perhaps the time has finally come for you Robert to enlighten us with the IV installment.
I dont mean to be rude but it is really long overdue.
Thanks -Gregg
Posted by: gregg at May 13, 2008 01:01 PM
Gregg:
I'm not clear on Part IV yet. Lack of clarity, so to speak:-)
Okay, I'm lazy!
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech
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