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July 10, 2008

Will Israel Attack Iran? Duh

The fine military analyst and historian Robert Kaplan, in this month's Atlantic Monthly, does not believe that Israel will attack Iran. His main argument is that the U.S. won't sign off on a great raid.

As much as I respect Kaplan, I disagree.

And so does the invaluable Joshua Pundit who lays out his arguments far better than I ever could:

If history's any indication, the raid on Iran's nuclear facilities would most likely be carried out by small tactical groups of IAF jets just as the raid that took out Syria's clandestine nuclear site was.The Israelis would likely use small groups of planes, flying in tight formation to minimize radar signals and fly along established air corridors, mimicking the call signals and radio traffic common to commercial aircraft.
An airstrike would also likely be proceeded by an Israeli missile strike on the Iranian surface to air missile sites and radar installations shortly before the Israeli planes hit their targets. Some of these strikes could be delivered by air from a distance outside the range of Iranian fighter craft (most of which are outdated and in bad shape), others from the Dolphin submarines Israel possesses.
The Iranian nuke installations are guarded by the same supposedly invincible Russian-built Pantsyr missile defense systems the Israeli successfully blinded when they destroyed the Syrian nuclear site earlier this year. It's likely the Russians and the Iranians made a few tweaks to the system based on that, but it's also highly likely that the IDF also has a few new tricks up its sleeve as well.

To read the complete article, please click here.

IranMissilePhotoshop4.jpg
Digitally altered photo of Iranian missile launch

And from Little Green Footballs: the photo of the Iranian Missile launch on the front cover of so many newspapers—it's been Photoshopped.

Hard to believe that the Iranian's would actually lie about their military capabilities. Even harder to believe that the mainstream media, giants like the Los Angeles Times, would fall for such trickery. Has it ever occurred to anyone in the MSM newsrooms that they are dupes for a genocidal, Jew-hating state? Or maybe it just doesn't bother them.

Posted by Robert J. Avrech at July 10, 2008 10:41 AM

Comments

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Very interesting piece.

I hope that the IAF blasts the Iranian program to oblivion - once again the Israelis will do the dirty work for the free (but desperately naive) world

However, I always wonder why people express comments about how Israel might conduct the raid - doesn't that give a tip off to the Iranians?

Mark in Canada

Posted by: mark at July 10, 2008 12:42 PM

MARK:

"However, I always wonder why people express comments about how Israel might conduct the raid - doesn't that give a tip off to the Iranians?"

a lot of what you read is all conjecture based on publicly available information. (and that's why everyone says something different.) the iranians do have military intelligence and i doubt they haven't thought up the same possible attack routes that military commentators have.

and then i'm sure that there is some info that is leaked by the israelis either to scare the iranians or confuse them and keep them from focusing on the real attack plan.

"once again the Israelis will do the dirty work for the free (but desperately naive) world"

i would add only: . . . and then they will be condemned for it. so get ready for the fallout

Posted by: Lion of Zion at July 10, 2008 04:30 PM

just read an article about the failures that could have produced disastrous results during the Osirak raid. sends shivers up the spine as you read it.

youtube has great clips up of the iaf, including an entire highly-recommended documentary about the history of israeli dogfights

http://youtube.com/watch?v=uu21W-ls_bE
http://youtube.com/watch?v=wXFADxHNfK4&feature=related

also check out this israeli F-15 flying after losing a wing!
http://youtube.com/watch?v=ZKpFLaFUbl4&feature=related

Posted by: Lion of Zion at July 10, 2008 05:06 PM

Posted by: Lion of Zion at July 10, 2008 06:33 PM

Posted by: Mark at July 10, 2008 07:21 PM

Another good money quote from the Joshuapundit article:
the Democrats here in Congress.They'd go berserk.

Yep, those true patriots....I would imagine Pelosi, Reid, and the Move On crowd would be purple with apopletic rage.

If I was a Jewish-Democrat I would be really embarrassed.

Posted by: Lance at July 10, 2008 11:18 PM

"once again the Israelis will do the dirty work for the free (but desperately naive) world"

i would add only: . . . and then they will be condemned for it. so get ready for the fallout"

Better that kind of fallout than the nuclear variety.

Posted by: Shira Salamone at July 11, 2008 08:36 AM

I disagree as well. Many experts have long been predicting that Bush wants to invade Iran before he leaves office.

We should leave Iran an honorable path of retreat. Engaging Iran in the global economy is the only approach that has merit.

Regardless of Iran's size however, we should be careful what we assume about Iran; it has some ten million men of military age.

Puor bien savoir les choses, il en faut savoir le detail, et comme il est presque infini, nos connaissances sont toujours superficielles et imparfaites.

Unfortunately, what we do know is that the Bush administration cannot be trusted to do what it says. Iraq taught us that lesson. Many experts have long been predicting that Bush would invade Iran before he leaves office. But of course, the Bush administration would never admit to such a thing.

“On ne donne rien si liberalement que ses conseils.”

But it is the man who follows his own counsel, he’s the one that should lead.

Posted by: John Maszka at July 11, 2008 10:46 AM

"Engaging Iran in the global economy is the only approach that has merit"...why do you assume that the Iranian leadership is motivated by economic considerations?

Ralph Peters: "One of the most consistently disheartening experiences an adult can have today is to listen to the endless attempts by our intellectuals and intelligence professionals to explain religious terrorism in clinical terms, assigning rational motives to men who have moved irrevocably beyond reason. We suffer under layers of intellectual asymmetries that hinder us from an intuititive recognition of our enemies."

Paul Reynaud (who became Prime Minister of France just prior to the German invasion of 1940): "People think Hitler is like Kaiser Wilhelm. The old gentleman only wanted to take Alsace-Lorraine from us. But Hitler is Genghis Khan."

See also my post when national leaders are madmen.

Posted by: david foster at July 11, 2008 11:08 AM

And this from the International Herald:

Iran says the additional sanctions by the European Union will not affect Tehran's nuclear program.
Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini has said in a statement that the "carrot and stick policy" by the 27-nation bloc won't stop Iran's "pursuit to realize its nuclear rights."
Hosseini said the new sanctions would only damage European interests in Iran. A copy of his statement was made available to the AP on Tuesday.
EU nations on Monday approved additional financial and travel restrictions on a list of Iranian companies — including the country's largest bank, Bank Melli Iran.
Earlier in June, EU unsuccessfully proposed a package of economic incentives in return for an end to Iran's uranium enrichment program.

When a terrorist state promises to destroy Israel and Jews everywhere, I and most people with common sense believe them—especially as Persia declared war against America and Israel over 25 years ago and has been killing Americans and Jews ever since.

You can't buy off jihadists, nor can you negotiate with them. You destroy them.

Posted by: Robert J. Avrech [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 11, 2008 12:10 PM

Thought you might enjoy this: two can play.

Posted by: david foster at July 11, 2008 02:45 PM

First of all,Robert thanks for the kind words...todah rabah.

As far as giving Iran `a graceful exit' I think that's a fallacy. It's not what the Mullahs are looking for in the slightest, and if it was they could already have had a very attractive path towards that.

In order for diplomacy to succeed, two factors have to be present. First, each side must see that they have something to gain from a negotiation an be willing to give up something to get it, and second, each side must trust the other to carry out agreements. Neither condition applies to Iran and the US..or to the Israelis and the Palestinians for that matter, which is why negotiations always fall through no matter how many 'good faith' concessions the Israelis give them.

All Good Things,


rm

Posted by: Rob at July 14, 2008 09:27 PM

Rob:

B'vakasha, you're very welcome.

Those who urge a "graceful exit" for Iran don't understand the Iranian state. In fact, these are just appeasers who would not lose a night's sleep if Israel were wiped off the face of the earth.

Posted by: Robert J. Avrech [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 15, 2008 12:03 PM

Israel has to do the dirty job. No one is going to offer their land if Jews are blown up and driven away

Posted by: wilson at January 6, 2009 12:34 AM

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