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November 10, 2008
Israel: The One Bomb State
Israel faces grave political and military challenges on all fronts. Terrorism via the Palestinians in Israel, Hamas in Gaza and a powerful Hizbullah in Lebanon are deeply troubling issues. But the greatest existential threat to Israel is Iran's single-minded pursuit of nuclear weapon technology and Shiite hegemony over the Gulf region. To understand the complex military issues involved Seraphic Secret has turned to our knowledgeable and close friend Air Force Officer for this sobering analysis.
—RJA
The Patriot Missile System.
In the nuke business, we occasionally run across the phrase “one-bomb state.” It's our way of saying that a particular nation-state would be decimated—economically, politically, militarily—by a single nuclear detonation. Estimating who can take what is an art, not a science as it's been sixty plus years since the last time an atomic weapon was used in combat. Figure Russia, The United States, and China are 20-25 bomb states, while most of the larger European nations are 10-15 bomb states.
Israel, however, is a one bomb state.
Of course, targeting and geography play a role. We assume that atomic bursts would be city killers when tinkering around with these equations. Israel could suck up a bomb or two in the Negev, just as the United States could absorb 20-25 in places like Nevada, Wyoming, and New Mexico. Properly diversified over a range of inconsequential terrain, of course.
But a thermonuclear air burst over, say, Tel Aviv? Fuggedaboudit. Kiss the wonderful little Jewish State goodbye.
In short, one-bomb state, because one bomb is all it takes.
So: Israel is right and properly freaked out over Iran and Syria pursuing nuclear technology, while the United States is right and properly freaked out over the possibility of a nuclear exchange in the Middle East. In fact, the two are so concerned, they're sinking billions into a multi-layered, highly robust missile defense shield right there over Israel and the Med.
The big newskie is this: the United States will be deploying troops to Israel to stand up an x-band radar, one that will be capable of detecting, processing, and alerting the authorities to a regional ballistic missile launch. Not exactly sure which country concerns Israel the most, but it's a pretty safe bet that this thing is going to be pointed in a easterly direction.
Now, U.S. troops have spent plenty of time in Israel on exercises and conferences—even real world situations like Operation Nickel Grass during the '73 War—but I'm fairly certain that this is the first time American troops have permanently bedded down in the Promised Land.
The x-band will process information directly to European Command, but, as I understand it, that information will be instantly shared with Israeli authorities. From there, Israel is free to power-up her missile defense assets.
Which, I might add, are becoming formidable. Here's the dime tour.
Arrow Missile Simulation
First is the Arrow, a theater ground-based system that's proved effective against simulated SCUD attacks. From what I can tell, the Arrow is a highly reliable system that forms the current backbone of Israel's missile defense infrastructure. You'll have to fact-check me on this, but I believe the Israelis have stood up three operational batteries of Arrows, which presumably is enough to withstand a large-scale short-to-medium range ballistic missile strike. However, as with U.S. carrier battle groups, missile defense relies on a multiple weapon systems effective at a variety of ranges. Redundancy, redundancy, redundancy.
David's Sling. Biblical names just roll off the tongue.
Enter David's Sling, aka the 'Stunner', an Israeli weapons project still in the test phases. I can't really tell what DS is designed to defend against, other than, y'know, rockets. All the kinks are still being worked out, and it probably won't be operational for another half-decade. It's a terminal phase kill vehicle, but I haven't been able to gather whether or not it's a kinetic kill vehicle or if it's got explosives packed into the nose. I'm thinking this type of system could be used against Hizbullah's Katyusha rockets that were such a pain in the ass during the '06 Lebanon War. But with terminal kill vehicles there's an assumption they can be effective against local MRBMs (read: SCUDS).
So what to do with short-range rockets? Y'know, the nasty little Qassams that the terrorists fire from the Gaza strip and such?
One thing about the Jews, if Robert may allow me to positively stereotype here, is that they think of everything. Learned that when I studied in Israel. When Americans think of missile defense, they think of a shield from the heavy shooters: North Korea and Iran, even China. But when the Israelis think of missile defense, they think of missile and rocket defense. If it flies and carries a warhead, Israel wants to kill it.
Iron Dome, a rocket battery plus radar-detection system, um, theoretically.
That's where Iron Dome comes into play. Iron Dome is a 20-rocket battery plus radar-detection system designed to be deployed around urban centers. I think of that old arcade game Missile Command to visualize. If—and that's a big if—Iron Dome works, it'd render towns along Israel's northern and southern borders immune to Hamas and Hezzy rocket barrages. Of course that's the problem: no one knows if the thing works yet. And it'd take one radar + battery per urban center to guarantee effectiveness, which makes Iron Dome a pricey system of questionable reliability.
Rewind to the big picture.
There are two American systems that will come to an Israeli theater near you in the distant to near future. We all know the Patriot. That'll be deployed against baddies like Iran. The new kid on the block is the US Army's THAAD system, the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense System that's designed to work hand-in-hand with the Patriot PAC-3s that we're sending east. Though THAAD is still in development, it's achieved some phenomenal success over at the White Sands test facility in New Mexico. As the name implies, the system is designed to kill a ballistic missile at extremely high altitude, as the missile transitions from it's mid-course to terminal reentry phase. It's one of those "last line of defense" toys. We hope never to use them.
THADD, a terminal high altitude system, a last line of defense.
I'm not sure when, exactly, THAAD will be in Israel. A few years is my guess. The U.S. Army recently stood up a THAAD unit in Alaska which *should* be operational as soon as next year. When we start exporting? Who knows.
So let me wrap up with Iran. To answer the question that's no doubt lingering in everyone's mind: I'm not sure what impact this will have on Israeli plans to strike the Mullahs. At the moment, there's a technological race between Israel and Iran.
Iran to: A) develop a bomb and B) to shrink said bomb and mate it to a successful delivery system.
Israel to stand up a missile defense system robust enough to assure their safety from a full ballistic missile laydown.
If Israel starts to lose that race, they strike Iran. If Israel wins, there's a possibility that she stands behind her missile shield and assume a spin-off of the mutually assured destruction policy: “You shoot at us, you might get a SCUD or two through our defense. But we guarantee that your destruction is assured, irrespective of the success of your attack.”
Whether or not that's the proper course of action, well, you all can duke that out. Those are the stakes, those are the players. The game, from here on out, should be very, very interesting.
Crossposted on DefenseTech.org.
More articles by Air Force Officer:
Officer Rot in the United States Air Force
And hey, better late than never, Haveil Havalim #190, The Post Election Panic Edition presented by the deliciously named Jewlicious.
And oh gee, it looks as if President-elect Obama is moving quickly to usher in a new era of change, change that will make the world much safer for IslamoNazi terrorists. Yup, fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
Halls of Montezuma clip, H/T: Dirty Harry's Place
Thanks to all my readers who have sent in birthday wishes to yours truly. I'm very proud to share a birthday with The United States Marines Corps. This is the 233rd anniversary of their founding. I'm just a few years older. Semper fi!
Posted by Robert J. Avrech at November 10, 2008 09:39 AM
Comments
Seraphic Secret is private property, that's right, it's an extension of our home, and as such, Karen and I have instituted two Seraphic Rules and we ask commentors to act respectfully.
1. No profanity.2. No Israel bashing. We debate, we discuss, we are respectful. You know what Israel bashing is. The world is full of it. Seraphic Secret is one of the few places in the world that will not tolerate this form of anti-Semitism. That's it. Break either of these rules and you will be banned.
I heard about this system back on October 20. In a YNET article there were some concerns about Israel not being able to act with complete freedom :
This gift improves Israel’s self-defense capabilities, and we should be thankful for that. However, it limits our freedom to act both operationally and diplomatically. Our problem is not only how to protect ourselves. We need to be able to act against those who made the State of Israel’s elimination their top priority. This ability of ours has been undermined. The message inherent in the granting of the radar system is the same message of American refusal to our previous requests: Do nothing. There is no certainty that the words uttered by presidential candidates McCain and Obama against the Iranian nukes will be translated, in 2009, into a more forceful policy than that of the current US Administration.
I'm glad the system is there. I'm not sure what to make of the concerns addressed in the YNET article, especially the operational ones. It could mean those precious minutes are eaten up in debate between the US soldiers operating the equipment and the Israeli Defense Forces.
I haven't seen very many articles on the defense system or on what was brought up by the YNET article.
Thanks for posting how it works.
Posted by: shira0607 at November 10, 2008 10:11 AM
Wow. Great post, even though it's scary.
Posted by: DrCarol at November 10, 2008 10:12 AM
Let's see... Iran makes no secret of it's pursuit in the destruction of the Jewish State of Israel.
Israel has a redundant anti-rocket and missile shield
Iran, Hezbollah & Hamas have been importing NON-Stop rockets, missiles and munitions...
Might I humbly suggest, since the quantity of arms the otherside collects only INCREASES with each passing day, week , month, year to ever record breaking numbers that Israel should reduce such stockpiles of Israel's enemies with extreme prejudice asap.
Posted by: Rambam ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.seraphicpress.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at November 10, 2008 10:58 AM
Very interesting analysis.
Posted by: Jack at November 10, 2008 12:06 PM
Candidate Obama has been pretty negative on missile defense, along with the rest of the Dem leadership...we can only hope that President Obama will rethink these views.
See my post shooting down missile defense.
Posted by: david foster at November 10, 2008 01:37 PM
The move from a fission, via a boosted-fission, to a fission/fusion thermonuclear warhead is very, very difficult.
Weaponizing a simple uranium/plutonium fission device, to fit on the top of a missile, is also very hard.
The Western nations and the USSR spent a lot of time, money and testing before they got their systems working. All the Iranians have is time, they do not have the money nor can they test.
Getting a device to survive the acceleration and shaking that happens during a missile launch and reentry is very hard. It is at least an order of magnitude more difficult than having a successful Scud hit.
So work on your defenses, the Arrow is a very nice system. Soon you will be able to have the SAM-3 that the USN is deploying.
Don't be so nervous, you have a lot of time.
Posted by: DocMartyn at November 10, 2008 04:47 PM
Missile defense is certainly worthy of pursuit but my concern for Israel is that once the Palestinians have their state, fanatics, having only their less than stellar record of reluctance in killing their fellow Muslims to restrain them, will merely have to drive a truck bomb to a border location close to an Israeli city in order to accomplish their goals. And with Obama supposedly wanting to realign U.S. relationships in the M.E., I think that Israel may find herself on her own as far as missile defense is concerned. (BTW - Happy B-D to both you and the incredible U.S. Marines.)
Posted by: Kae Gregory at November 10, 2008 07:04 PM
Wonderful article, extremely informative. :)
And Happy Birthday to you!
The Marines too. :)
Posted by: Vanessa at November 10, 2008 10:12 PM
I heard it said once that Mossad has operatives in every far corner of the Middle East. Certainly the raid in Syrya a few months ago gave one a glimpse of someone's capabilities.
Let's hope they have a good pulse of Iran's nuclear progress.
Two good books I would heartily recommend are The Nuclear Jihadist by Douglas Franz and The Looming Tower by Lawrence Wright.
The former is about Pakistan's nuclear ambitions and how Abdul Khan circumvented the west in getting it - but it also delves into programs like Libya's (the West didn't even know they had a program until the Libyans told us!) -
The latter takes you into the history of radical Islam - ostensibly started by an Egyptian exchange student in Greeley Colorado 1948 -
Point of all this is thaere is some extremely scary stuff out there and most of our population is blissfully uinaware - 9/11 has even receded from most minds.
Posted by: Bill Brandt at November 10, 2008 10:43 PM
Happy birthday!
Isn't it strange that some people don't see the connection between stylish footwear, Israel, and movie stars? I'm so sad for them.
Posted by: Alice at November 11, 2008 04:22 AM
Happy bday to my fellow Scorpian :)
Posted by: cruisin-mom at November 11, 2008 07:15 AM
I assume any criticism of Israel will be considered anti-Semitic?
Posted by: Jimmy Franklin at November 11, 2008 12:27 PM
Jimmy:
Hey, I have a cool idea. Why don't you read Hama's Covenant before you criticize Israel, okay?
And keep in mind that Hamas, in the last Palestinian elections, won every precinct in Gaza and the West Bank except for one small municipality.
http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/hamas.asp
And oh yeah, if some of the language seems oddly familiar it's because part of the covenant is based on "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion."
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at November 11, 2008 02:25 PM
Very informative posting. Thanks!
And happy belated birthday, Robert.
Posted by: Larry Reznick at November 11, 2008 06:06 PM
Thanks to everyone for your kind bday wishes.
Posted by: Robert J. Avrech at November 11, 2008 09:09 PM
Thanks to everyone for the kind comments, sans Jimmy -- who is a bit of a nincompoop.
Doc, I agree with your analysis. The fact that Iran is focused on U-235 makes me think that they've got a long ways to go...
Kae, you're right of course. Iran probably won't use a normal delivery system. A suicide A-bomb armed ship off the coast of Tel Aviv would critically wound Israel and one in the port of Haifa would finish her off. The fallout, blowing east, would make the rest of the country uninhabitable for years.
Scary stuff -- that's why Israel must, above all, focus on their intelligence collecting abilities. That's more important than fighter jets, commandos, and subs -- in my humble opinion.
Posted by: Air Force Officer at November 12, 2008 05:21 PM
I've been saying to anyone that will listen to me that Israel should crash pisslims into submission by any means necessary before they destroy her. There's no middle of the road. It's either Israel or her foes. Doing nothing is suicidal for Israel. Time is on the side of the pisslims. And Israel CAN be destroyed. Did anyone think America could elect a communist as president? Things happen. Act now. The window may be very small. What do you think the obamanation will do with the info from the radar system? How about nothing?
Posted by: Jorge Banner at November 13, 2008 08:30 AM
If we’re going to sell the Israelis out, shall we look at consequences?…
An exercise for the students:
As Israeli Defense Force Chief of Staff ) or whatever the rank is), you are ordered to design a “Samson” option to (in the event of Holocaust II) take down as many of those bastards with you as possible, given 150 to 200 nuclear warheads, and possibly enormous biological expertise.
What would you consider?
Would “those bastards” include countries (including so-called allies) that just stood by and let it happen?
What would really do the most damage to them?
(All of this assuming that you will not go gently into the good night.)
-
Posted by: Paul_In_Houston at November 16, 2008 04:27 PM
Very informative post. Just thought I'd add another defense system that they and we never speak of, and that is, rather he is, the Lord God almighty. He never sleeps and he is the one who keeps Israel safe. I only offer one prediction, and it's not "mine." Russia and several others will soon attack Israel along with Iran and a few others. They will be destroyed. The Bible says that God does it, and so I agree with that although he may decide to use the defensive systems that are in place at the time. The Bible hints that it will be a rain of fire and brimstone from heaven. Sounds like bombs to me.
Posted by: TOGunslinger at December 15, 2008 11:59 AM
Robert-
You have a great site. I'm glad to have come across it while doing further searching on the "one-bomb war" theory.
Knowing that Israel has been tagged as such, I also have discovered we in the US fit the label too. I reference the hazards and vulnerability of the US to elecro-magnetic pulse (EMP) attack.
Iran's Shahab-3 now has a 1,250 mile range. http://cbs5.com/campaign08/iran.missile.test.2.766678.html
View the figure at page 9 of this link, http://ftp.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32544.pdf - and you can see a single launch vehicle concealed within a shipping container fired 250 miles of the east coast could fry all the essential electronic grid, automobile computers, and financial systems, quickly taking out of the world strategic equation (Katrina on a cascading national scale).
This link shows our population distribution http://www.census.gov/geo/www/mapGallery/images/2k_night.jpg
Can we be sure there has been total accountability of the former Soviet Union's arsenal during their collapse?
We have to be 100 percent effective in our shielding from such threats... they only have to be clever once.
This recent WSJ article gives a good overview - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121824192073426161.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
I believe our prosperity here in the US has a direct connection with our solidarity with Israel (Gen 12:3).
Food for thought...
Glenn
Posted by: Glenn at December 26, 2008 05:27 PM
One of my most favorite logos....the Valley Squadron!
Glenn
Posted by: Glenn at December 26, 2008 05:30 PM
Being a low-tech person, I apologize for not knowing how to get links and images connected here...
Glenn
Posted by: Glenn at December 26, 2008 05:36 PM