Iran: Bigger Threat than North Korean and Syria Combined

Below is Michael Oren’s April 15 op-ed from the Wall Street Journal, in which Ambassador Oren argues that the Trump administration must act decisively now to address a threat to the United States greater than that of Syria and North Korea combined: Iran.

Oren explains that the United States has signed three agreements to keep non-conventional weapons out of the hands of rogue regimes. Two of those regimes, Syria and North Korea, have violated those agreements and are now being challenged by President Trump. The third regime—the most dangerous, Iran—doesn’t even need to its agreement in order to produce nuclear weapons. To become a nuclear power, Iran only has to honor it.

As signed, the Iran nuclear deal assures that Iran will be a nuclear armed power by the late 2020s. Now is the time, Oren argues, that President Trump must act to address the appalling flaws in the deal and to save the middle East, America and the world from a nuclear armed Jihadist Iran.

The U.S. has signed agreements with three rogue regimes strictly limiting their unconventional military capacities. Two of those regimes—Syria and North Korea—brazenly violated the agreements, provoking game-changing responses from President Trump. But the third agreement—with Iran—is so inherently flawed that Tehran doesn’t even have to break it. Honoring it will be enough to endanger millions of lives.

The framework agreements with North Korea and Syria, concluded respectively in 1994 and 2013, were similar in many ways. Both recognized that the regimes already possessed weapons of mass destruction or at least the means to produce them. Both assumed that the regimes would surrender their arsenals under an international treaty and open their facilities to inspectors. And both believed that these repressive states, if properly engaged, could be brought into the community of nations.

All those assumptions were wrong. After withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Pyongyang tested five atomic weapons and developed intercontinental missiles capable of carrying them. Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, less than a year after signing the framework, reverted to gassing his own people. Bolstered by the inaction of the U.S. and backed by other powers, North Korea and Syria broke their commitments with impunity.

Or so it seemed. By ordering a Tomahawk missile attack on a Syrian air base, and a U.S. Navy strike force to patrol near North Korea’s coast, the Trump administration has upheld the frameworks and placed their violators on notice. This reassertion of power is welcomed by all of America’s allies, Israel among them. But for us, the most dangerous agreement of all is the one that may never need military enforcement. For us, the existential threat looms in a decade, when the agreement with Iran expires.

Like the frameworks with North Korea and Syria, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action of 2015 assumed that Iran would fulfill its obligations and open its facilities to inspectors. The JCPOA assumed that Iran would moderate its behavior and join the international community. Yet unlike its North Korean and Syrian allies, Iran was the largest state sponsor of terror and openly vowed to destroy another state—Israel. Unlike them, Iran systematically lied about its unconventional weapons program for 30 years. And unlike Damascus and Pyongyang, which are permanently barred from acquiring weapons of mass destruction, Tehran can look forward to building them swiftly and legitimately in the late 2020s, once the JCPOA expires.

This, for Israel and our neighboring Sunni states, is the appalling flaw of the JCPOA. The regime most committed to our destruction has been granted a free pass to develop military nuclear capabilities. Iran could follow the Syrian and North Korean examples and cheat. Or, while enjoying hundreds of billions of dollars in sanctions relief, it can adhere to the agreement and deactivate parts of its nuclear facilities rather than dismantle them. It can develop new technologies for producing atomic bombs while testing intercontinental ballistic missiles. It can continue massacring Syrians, Iraqis and Yemenis, and bankrolling Hamas and Hezbollah. The JCPOA enables Iran to do all that merely by complying.

A nuclear-armed Iran would be as dangerous as “50 North Koreas,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the U.N. in 2013, and Iran is certainly many times more dangerous than Syria. Yet Iran alone has been granted immunity for butchering civilians and threatening genocide. Iran alone has been guaranteed a future nuclear capability. And the Iranian regime—which brutally crushed a popular uprising in 2009—has amassed a million-man force to suppress any future opposition. Rather than moderating, the current regime promises to be more radical yet in another 10 years.

How can the U.S. and its allies pre-empt catastrophe? Many steps are possible, but they begin with penalizing Iran for the conventions it already violates, such as U.N. restrictions on missile development. The remaining American sanctions on Iran must stay staunchly in place and Congress must pass further punitive legislation. Above all, a strong link must be established between the JCPOA and Iran’s support for terror, its pledges to annihilate Israel and overthrow pro-American Arab governments, and its complicity in massacres. As long as the ayatollahs oppress their own population and export their tyranny abroad, no restrictions on their nuclear program can ever be allowed to expire.

In responding forcibly to North Korean and Syrian outrages, President Trump has made a major step toward restoring America’s deterrence power. His determination to redress the flaws in the JCPOA and to stand up to Iran will greatly accelerate that process. The U.S., Israel and the world will all be safer.

Michael Oren is an Israeli historian, author, politician, former ambassador to the United States, and current member of the Knesset for the Kulanu party and the Deputy Minister for Diplomacy in the Prime Minister’s Office. He is author of many books, most recently ” Ally: My Journey Across the American-Israeli Divide .”

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  1. sennacherib
    Posted April 19, 2017 at 6:35 pm | Permalink

    I’m in! I can’t believe it! Gotta work fast.
    Darn right! The SJW, CJWs, or whatever they may call themselves today have this strange belief in agreements on papers (almost as if they are some kind of talisman they can just shake and all will be well) while the bad guys believe in power and just see fools shaking papers, lighting candles, holding vigils, and tweeting hash tags. I much prefer the papers etc, but you have to convince the bad guys. Until I get in again.

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  2. Posted April 19, 2017 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    Of course Mr. Oren is 100% correct.
    However, I do not understand why great historians like Mr. Oren and others far more knowledgeable than myself are not focused on the “whack-a-mole” reality of Islamist death cults.
    Stop Iran today and Turkey takes up the banner or Pakistan shakes loose its “moderation” and the Suiciders take over or one of the alphabet soup of Islamist death cults takes over Sudan or Somalia or Deathistan and figures out some other WMD…
    Get the Saudis to transform their heretic Wahhabism into a Reformed Islam. Ditto Iran’s heretic Vilayat al Faqih…
    Carrots; Sticks; Embargos; War; whatever it takes.
    Otherwise – it’s just whack-a-mole until one of their death cults succeeds in a scale 100 times worse than Syria…

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