Below the fold, my good friend David Gerstman analyzes Iran’s tactical and strategic position in Syria.
David and other analysts have come to the conclusion that Iran is taking a beating in Syria.
But a common mistake analysts make when viewing IslamoNazi movements—state and non-state players—is to judge them by Western standards.
This is a fatal mistake. It assumes that IslamoNazis make the same human calculations of gain and loss that we do.
And let us keep in mind, as does Gerstman, that the Obama-Kerry capitulation to Iran has made the IslamoNazis of Iran not just stronger and richer, but has guaranteed their quest for nuclear weapons.
Such an enemy is not easily deterred.
Iran and its allies have taken a beating in Syria according to recent reports.
Perhaps the most spectacular was the airstrike overnight that killed the notorious child killer, Samir Kuntar and eight other terrorists in a Damascus suburb. Prof. Jacobson rightly called Kuntar “among the most notorious and vicious terrorists,” for shooting Danny Haran to death in front of his four year old daughter, Einat, and then killed her by smashing her head against a rock with his rifle butt. Needless to say Kuntar was treated as a hero by Hezbollah, who traded the bodies of IDF soldiers, Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser, to free Kuntar in 2008. He also received the Syrian Order of Merit from Syria’s dictator Bashar al-Assad shortly after his release.
But Kuntar’s killing is just a symptom of the recently reported problems plaguing Iran and its allies who are backing Assad.
Early last week it was reported that as many as one-third of Hezbollah’s fighting force have been killed or wounded in Syria. That was followed by a report on Friday that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had withdrawn most of its troops from Syria after suffering dozens of casualties. The withdrawal of the Iranians has put additional pressure on Hezbollah as the Russian airstrikes have not been as decisive as Hezbollah had hoped.
Avi Issacharoff pointed out two weaknesses exposed by the recent news. On an operational level he wrote, “the assassination is further evidence — after the assassination of Jihad Mughniyeh in January and the killing of Hassan al-Laqis in December 2013 — of the ease with which intelligence services can infiltrate the organization.”
The other is a manpower shortage about which he wrote, “In the past few months, Hezbollah has launched a massive draft of youths 17 and older to make up for its losses. However, the recruits are not at the same level as the trained and sophisticated fighters that filled its ranks just a few years ago.” Thus he doesn’t expect that Hezbollah will seek an all out war with Israel right now.
To be sure Hezbollah is still a threat to Israel with a massive terror infrastructure in place, financed by Iran (especially in the wake of the nuclear deal), as the red alert sirens in northern Israel (including Nahariya, the scene of Kuntar’s crime) today attest. The Jerusalem Post reports that the IDF believes that three rockets landed in Israel causing no injuries.
In addition to Iranian forces and Hezbollah, Iran has reported to be importing Shi’ite fighters from Iraqi militias, Afghanistan and Pakistan to boost its pro-Assad forces.
Iran supports Assad to maintain a land connection to Lebanon and Israel’s border. In recent weeks the cost of that support has gone up.
Samir Kuntar’s dead, but the Iranian threat, however degraded is still there.
And, something I posted somewhere else, adapting it from an article in The Onion after 9/11 –
JAHANNEM, OUTER DARKNESS— Samir Kuntar who murdered innocents in 1979 expressed confusion and surprise to find himself in the lowest plane of Na’ar, Islam’s Hell.
“I was promised I would spend eternity in Paradise, being fed honeyed cakes by 67 virgins in a tree-lined garden, if only I would kill Jews and babies,” he said between attempts to vomit up the wasps, hornets, and live coals infesting his stomach. “But instead, I am fed the boiling feces of traitors by malicious, laughing Ifrit. Is this to be my reward for destroying the enemies of my faith?”
The rest of Kuntar’s words turned to raw-throated shrieks, as a tusked, asp-tongued demon burst his eyeballs and drank the fluid that ran down his face.
Moishe,
I can feel the love.
Yeah,
I felt good when (excuse me Robert, but we used to say this a long time ago) this thing got his s–t all f–ked up. I hope he didn’t go quick or easy either.
I’ve telling people this for quite awhile Hezbollah, and the IRG are way over rated, especially when they come out and fight in the open on offense.
It looks like to me that the US and Russia have made a deal and the US has essentially pulled out (re: the fighter/bomber withdrawal from Turkey). I also think that the Russians have made a decesion to draw the theatre in half with Russia/Assad syrian forces in the west and Irani/Shia’s in the east and Iraq area. This would explain Irans withrawal of alot of it’s forces back into Iraq. I think you are going to see major ISIS efforts in the Iraqi arena soon and terror attacks in the West over the holiday season. With the withdrawal of US air ISIS may feel they can easily deal with the Ramadi offensive by the Iraqis and make a play for Baghdad.
Well I don’t know what’s proper, but I don’t care Happy Hannakuh and Merry Christmas, to all of you people here.
Eldad Regev was a distant cousin of mine – may he rest in peace. (His family changed its surname when they moved to Israel.) This is the first time I’ve heard about who who was set free in exchange for his body. To think that such scum benefitted from Eldad’s death is sickening.