Obama’s Revenge vs. Romney’s Love of Country

The other day, Barack Hussein Obama told his followers that “voting is the best revenge.”

This is the politics of nihilism, which pretty much sums up Obama’s ideology.

The Romney campaign responded with this ad.

These two tiny moments in the 2012 campaign are, as far as Seraphic Secret is concerned, the spine of the dueling narratives. Common sense and common decency suggest that most Americans will feel violated by Obama’s equating our precious right to vote with a thuggish vendetta. With these words, Obama revealed his heart of darkness, a politics of corruption and a moral dead zone that is consistent with his entire career.

Meanwhile, Michael Barone, who has forgotten more about politics and polls than any ten talking heads on ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and MSNBC combined, predicts Romney 315, Obama 223.

Dare we believe such a landslide?

Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That’s bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.

But it’s also true that most voters oppose Obama’s major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery — Friday’s jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.

Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don’t identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.

That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting — and about their candidate — than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.

That’s been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.

The Obama campaign strategy, from the beginning, has recognized these handicaps, running barrages of early anti-Romney ads in states that Obama carried narrowly. But other states, not so heavily barraged, have come into contention.

Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I’ll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages — fully aware that I’m likely to get some wrong.

Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.

Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don’t see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.

Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.

Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.

Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer’s remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats’ traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.

Minnesota (10). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.

New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.

Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.

Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas’ Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions’ turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they’ll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.

Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don’t see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.

Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there’s no auto bailout issue. Obama.

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.

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  1. eyawitz
    Posted November 5, 2012 at 9:00 am | Permalink

    I wasn’t excited about Romney in the primaries, but these past couple of months have given me a good impression.  The main point is that Romney is clearly a ‘mensch’, a term which can’t be applied to Obama even in the loosest sense, as he demonstrated so clearly here.

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    • Robert J. Avrech
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 10:03 am | Permalink


      Seraphic Secret was a Bachmann supporter. Like you, we’ve also grown to really admire Romney and he has our enthusiastic support. We believe he can be a great president.

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  2. Nickie Clifford
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    Robert, fingers and toes are crossed that you are correct.  I have a good feeling though – as the campaign has dragged on I believe Romney’s decency, morality and MATURITY have become more apparent – and Obama’s small-minded, petty, sophomoric nature has revealed itself as his desperation has increased.  The sad fact though is that the strident liberals will purport that Obama’s demise was due to conservative racism rather than the truth – he is a wrong-thinking, callow man with poor judgement.  Simply not Presidential material.  Personally, I am thrilled to see wonderful people of all ethnicities and women in the Republican Party – we will not survive without this change.  It has nothing to do with “racism” – it’s about VALUES. 

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  3. David Foster
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

    Just put up a post that may be of interest: Israel, Obama, Democrats, and Jews



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  4. LukeHandCool
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

    My heart sank when, the night of the 2004 election when it came down to Ohio, Susan Estrich came on and delved into Ohio’s counties one by one and almost guaranteed a Kerry victory.

    Then Michael Barone came on and went much further into the minutiae and history of Ohio’s political geography and he said it looked like Bush would win.

    The rest is history … and I would never bet against Michael Barone!   

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    • Robert J. Avrech
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 12:48 pm | Permalink


      With all due respect to Estrich, but she ran the 1988 Presidential campaign of Michael Dukakis, which was easily the most inept, dopey political operation in American history. I once attended a Hollywood party—she used to be married to screenwriter Marty Kaplan—where Estrich sat at the bar and proceeded to get quietly, but determinedly hammered.

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      • kishke
        Posted November 4, 2012 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

        True. That campaign might have ended quite differently had the talented John Sasso remained in charge.

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  5. Johnny
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:47 am | Permalink

    Robert, you must be mistaken. I got it on good authority (Sgt Schultz on MSNBC last night) that the revenge ad was a sign of Romney’s desperation. And he followed it up by discussing it with the usual MSNBC commentators that are so far left the Gus Hall and the Communist Party USA look like John Birchers. I mean, Shultz is a paid professional that studies these things in a calm rational manner, right? (sarc off)  

    Barone will be ignored by the intelligentsia because he’s not ‘cool’ like Nate Silver even though he has a track record that Silver will never achieve. Silver got 2008 right (wow, like that was real hard) and missed 2010 by a country mile. But he’s the MSM’s golden boy at predicting elections. Silver’s like the stock picker that has a good six year record in an up market while the Peter Lynch’s get ignored.

    If Romney had made the revenge comment MSNBC would have demanded he be taken off the ballot and sent in exile to Borneo for 50 years as a traitor to American values.

    P.S. I hope your family members back east are surviving Obama’s Katrina. They are in our thoughts and prayers. 

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  6. kishke
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 8:38 am | Permalink

    What was he even talking about? Revenge on whom?

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    • Robert J. Avrech
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 11:11 am | Permalink


      Revenge against you, me, Seraphic Secret readers, anyone who doesn’t agree with his Marxist ideology. It’s just more of his class warfare. As I said, a vile man.

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    • Larry
      Posted November 5, 2012 at 5:36 pm | Permalink

      If class warfare is warfare then every issue is a battleground. If they perceive themselves as losers they’ll want revenge against anybody not in lockstep with them. As Robert wrote, you, me, anyone who disagrees with them. War never ends and, as famously written by others, war is the health of the state.

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  7. Bill Brandt
    Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:48 am | Permalink

    Obama did reveal is core with that statement. 
    “Great Uniter”, indeed.

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    • Robert J. Avrech
      Posted November 4, 2012 at 7:57 am | Permalink


      A vile man in service to a vile ideology.

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